Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista — UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Cory SandhagenMario Bautista

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista — Bantamweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · BantamweightID · DD56E147-1180-4D3B-8AEC-6127A9E4C89D

Rank #4 Bantamweight · Bantamweight

Cory Sandhagen

"The Sandman"

18-6-0 · Dynamic Striker / Wrestler

Rank #7 Bantamweight · Bantamweight

Mario Bautista

17-3-0 · Balanced Submission Grappler

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Sandhagen

57%

Edge14%

Bautista

43%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

SandhagenMetricBautista

5'11"Height5'9"

69.5"Reach69"

34Age33

SwitchStanceOrthodox

44%Finish Rate71%

Career Records

SandhagenMetricBautista

5Wins by KO/TKO5

3Wins by Submission7

4.86Sig. Strikes / Min5.30

3.47Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.98

45%Striking Accuracy48%

56%Striking Defense54%

1.15Takedowns / 15 min1.91

34%Takedown Accuracy38%

56%Takedown Defense55%

0.20Submissions / 15 min0.80

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Sandhagen

Key Advantages

Sandhagen's 2-inch height advantage facilitates superior range management in kickboxing exchanges
Bautista's 5.30 SLpM slightly outpaces Sandhagen's 4.86, suggesting high-volume pressure
Bautista possesses a significantly higher 71% finish rate compared to Sandhagen's 44%
Sandhagen has elite 5-round experience and 56% striking defense to mitigate power

Potential Concerns

Sandhagen's 56% takedown defense is a vulnerability against Bautista's 1.91 TD average
Bautista's 3.98 SApM indicates he absorbs more damage than Sandhagen (3.47)
Sandhagen coming off a high-level title loss to Merab Dvalishvili in 2025

AI Analysis

A technically elite striking rematch where Sandhagen's championship experience meets Bautista's surging grappling threat.

Forecast

Expect a cerebral first round where Sandhagen uses front kicks and jabs to establish the perimeter. Bautista will likely attempt several level changes in the second round, leveraging his 1.91 TD average to neutralize Sandhagen's movement. However, Sandhagen's superior 56% striking defense should allow him to avoid the big shots that Bautista often uses to set up his 0.8 sub average. As the fight enters the championship minutes, Sandhagen's 88-rated cardio and experience will likely take over. I foresee Sandhagen pulling away on the scorecards for a unanimous decision victory in a highly technical contest.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup centers on distance. Sandhagen utilizes a 69.5-inch reach and switch-stance movement to keep opponents on the end of his 4.86 SLpM. Bautista, operating at a 5.3 SLpM clip, prefers to close the distance and initiate grappling where he averages nearly 2 takedowns per 15 minutes. While Bautista's 7 career submissions make him a primary threat on the floor, Sandhagen's history against elite grapplers suggests he can survive early flurries to win the volume battle in the later rounds.

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