← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Luke RileyKai Kamaka III

Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III — Featherweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 11 de julio de 2026 en UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 en T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

slot.Prelim · FeatherweightID · E2E8C646-994A-4B6D-A2B5-AE791A92A6CA

Rango N/A · Featherweight

Luke Riley

13-0-0 · Striker

Rango N/A · Featherweight

Kai Kamaka III

"Da Fighting Hawaiian"

18-7-1 · Boxing / Wrestling

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Riley

58%

Ventaja16%

III

42%

Comparación de habilidades

86
81
Golpeo
50
70
Lucha
82
85
Cardio
37
55
Defensa de derribos
85
78
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

RileyMétricaIII
5'9"Estatura5'7"
69"Alcance69"
25Edad31
OrtodoxaPosturaOrtodoxa
69%Tasa de finalización22%

Récord de carrera

RileyMétricaIII
1Victorias por KO/TKO0
0Victorias por sumisión0
5.56Golpes significativos / min5.40
3.32Golpes significativos recibidos / min5.67
57%Precisión de golpeo59%
64%Defensa de golpeo56%
0Derribos / 15 min1.51
0%Precisión de derribo53%
37%Defensa de derribo55%
0Sumisiones / 15 min0.20

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

— Datos de consenso no disponibles —

Últimas noticias

— Sin noticias recientes —

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Higher output with 5.56 SLpM compared to Kamaka's 5.40 SLpM
  • Superior defensive striking metrics at 64% strike defense
  • High finishing capability (69% finish rate) vs a pure decision-oriented opponent
Posibles riesgos
  • Critically low 37% takedown defense against a 1.51 TD/15min wrestler
  • Significant experience gap in high-level competition depth
  • Has gone to decision in 12 of 13 official listed bouts despite UFC stat claims
Análisis del modelo

Undefeated prospect's high-volume striking meets a veteran's grinding pressure.

Pronóstico

Riley will likely look to exploit his speed and 64% striking defense to keep Kamaka on the outside. Expect a high-paced first round where Riley's volume (5.56 SLpM) initially overwhelms Kamaka's boxing. Kamaka will inevitably look to close the distance to test Riley’s porous 37% takedown defense. If Riley can scramble effectively, his striking accuracy should carry him through the later rounds. Most signs point to a competitive three-round battle. I forecast a Luke Riley victory via Unanimous Decision as his youth and volume overcome Kamaka's veteran savvy.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This is a classic 'prospect vs. gatekeeper' matchup. Luke Riley brings an impressive 57% striking accuracy and maintains a positive striking differential (+2.24). However, his official 37% takedown defense is a massive red flag against Kai Kamaka III, who averages over 1.5 takedowns per fight with 53% accuracy. Kamaka is notoriously difficult to finish, having taken 18 of his 26 career fights to the scorecards. While Riley's offensive volume is built for winning rounds, he must prevent Kamaka from turning this into a clinch-heavy grinding affair where the veteran's 1.51 takedown average could dictate the tempo.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.