← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Luke RileyKai Kamaka III

Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka IIIUFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III — Featherweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · FeatherweightID · E2E8C646-994A-4B6D-A2B5-AE791A92A6CA

Rank N/A · Featherweight

Luke Riley

13-0-0 · Striker

Unranked · Featherweight

Kai Kamaka III

"The Fighting Hawaiian"

18-8-1 · Boxing

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Riley

58%

Edge16%

III

42%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

RileyMetricIII

5'9"Height5' 7"

69"Reach69"

25Age31

OrthodoxStance—

69%Finish Rate22%

Career Records

RileyMetricIII

1Wins by KO/TKO3

0Wins by Submission1

5.56Sig. Strikes / Min5.49

3.32Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min6.03

57%Striking Accuracy59%

64%Striking Defense55%

—Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.21

0Takedowns / 15 min1.45

0%Takedown Accuracy53%

37%Takedown Defense55%

0Submissions / 15 min0.21

—Avg. Fight Time12:05

Strike Distribution

III

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Balanced

Head

42%

Body

41%

Leg

16%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing84%

Clinch13%

Ground3%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Riley

Key Advantages

Higher output with 5.56 SLpM compared to Kamaka's 5.40 SLpM
Superior defensive striking metrics at 64% strike defense
High finishing capability (69% finish rate) vs a pure decision-oriented opponent

Potential Concerns

Critically low 37% takedown defense against a 1.51 TD/15min wrestler
Significant experience gap in high-level competition depth
Has gone to decision in 12 of 13 official listed bouts despite UFC stat claims

AI Analysis

Undefeated prospect's high-volume striking meets a veteran's grinding pressure.

Forecast

Riley will likely look to exploit his speed and 64% striking defense to keep Kamaka on the outside. Expect a high-paced first round where Riley's volume (5.56 SLpM) initially overwhelms Kamaka's boxing. Kamaka will inevitably look to close the distance to test Riley’s porous 37% takedown defense. If Riley can scramble effectively, his striking accuracy should carry him through the later rounds. Most signs point to a competitive three-round battle. I forecast a Luke Riley victory via Unanimous Decision as his youth and volume overcome Kamaka's veteran savvy.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This is a classic 'prospect vs. gatekeeper' matchup. Luke Riley brings an impressive 57% striking accuracy and maintains a positive striking differential (+2.24). However, his official 37% takedown defense is a massive red flag against Kai Kamaka III, who averages over 1.5 takedowns per fight with 53% accuracy. Kamaka is notoriously difficult to finish, having taken 18 of his 26 career fights to the scorecards. While Riley's offensive volume is built for winning rounds, he must prevent Kamaka from turning this into a clinch-heavy grinding affair where the veteran's 1.51 takedown average could dictate the tempo.

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