← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovSteve ErcegRamazan Temirov

Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov — Flyweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 25 de julio de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov en Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

slot.Co-Main · FlyweightID · 10E03417-3E1B-4CE3-B3F8-017C7C749E38

Rango #6 Flyweight · Flyweight

Steve Erceg

"Astroboy"

14-4-0 · MMA

Rango #21 Flyweight · Flyweight

Ramazan Temirov

"Temurlan"

19-3-0 · Striker

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Erceg

58%

Ventaja16%

Temirov

42%

Comparación de habilidades

79
76
Golpeo
63
65
Lucha
88
75
Cardio
75
95
Defensa de derribos
82
85
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

ErcegMétricaTemirov
5'8"Estatura5'4"
68.5"Alcance63"
29Edad29
OrtodoxaPosturaOrtodoxa
57%Tasa de finalización63%

Récord de carrera

ErcegMétricaTemirov
3Victorias por KO/TKO1
1Victorias por sumisión0
5Finalizaciones en 1.º asalto10
4.64Golpes significativos / min4.37
4.07Golpes significativos recibidos / min3.93
47%Precisión de golpeo40%
55%Defensa de golpeo59%
0.13Promedio de knockdowns / 15 min2.52
1.13Derribos / 15 min0.84
28%Precisión de derribo50%
67%Defensa de derribo100%
0.40Sumisiones / 15 min0
14:56Tiempo promedio de pelea08:55

Distribución de golpes

Erceg

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

74%

Cuerpo

18%

Pierna

8%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Erceg

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 89%De pie89%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Suelo — 2%Suelo2%

Posición principal De pie

Temirov

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

77%

Cuerpo

22%

Pierna

1%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Temirov

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 85%De pie85%
Clinch — 12%Clinch12%
Suelo — 4%Suelo4%

Posición principal De pie

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

Kalshi

Erceg43%
Temirov57%

Las masas favorecen a Temirov · Erceg +130 / Temirov -150

Últimas noticias

Erceg

Fortalezas

  • Elite distance management and range control
  • High-level BJJ with 6 career submission wins
  • Proven durability against world-class opposition

Debilidades

  • Absorbs significant damage (4.07 SApM)
  • Low takedown accuracy (28%)
  • Struggles to keep opponents grounded

Oportunidades

  • Use reach to keep the aggressive Temirov at the end of punches
  • Drag the fight into the latter half to exploit cardio gaps
  • Initiate clinches to fatigue Temirov's explosive muscles

Amenazas

  • Temirov's first-round finishing power (10 wins)
  • Severe knockdowns from looping overhand rights
  • Inability to secure takedowns against 100% defense
Temirov

Fortalezas

  • Exceptional 100% UFC takedown defense rate
  • Absurd knockdown frequency (2.52 per 15 mins)
  • Strong initial explosiveness in round one

Debilidades

  • Short reach (63") for the weight class
  • Lower strike output (4.37 SLpM) over long durations
  • Limited submission threat at UFC level

Oportunidades

  • Counter Erceg's lunging entries with power strikes
  • Punish Erceg's 4.07 SApM defensive gaps
  • Force a brawl where reach matters less than impact

Amenazas

  • Getting out-pointed by Erceg's consistent jab
  • Fatigue setting in against Erceg's relentless pace
  • Vulnerability to technical counters during blitzes

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Significant 5.5-inch reach advantage for distance management
  • Superior volume at 4.64 SLpM vs Temirov's 4.37 SLpM
  • Proven experience in five-round main event conditions
  • Technical submissions (6 wins) to exploit ground scrambles
Posibles riesgos
  • Temirov's 100% takedown defense suggests Erceg must win on the feet
  • Temirov's massive 2.52 knockdown avg per 15 mins indicates elite power
  • Erceg's 4.07 SApM leaves him open to the Uzbekistan native's heavy counters
Análisis del modelo

A classic size and reach mismatch where Erceg's technical volume tests Temirov's explosive power.

Pronóstico

The fight should start with Temirov attempting to close the distance aggressively to negate Erceg's 68.5-inch reach. Erceg will likely use his jab and lateral movement to circle away from Temirov's power hand. Expect a high-paced striking battle where Erceg lands more frequently, but Temirov lands the more impactful single shots. Erceg’s superior cardio and technical volume will likely take over in the second half of the fight. Erceg should win a competitive Unanimous Decision, though he must survive early scares to reach the final bell.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This matchup pits Steve Erceg’s height and range against Ramazan Temirov’s compact explosiveness. Erceg maintains a 4-inch height and 5.5-inch reach edge, which he uses to maintain a high-paced striking rhythm (4.64 SLpM). Temirov, however, is statistically more efficient defensively at 59% strike defense and possesses a perfect 100% takedown defense in the UFC. While Erceg has more diverse ways to win, including a dangerous submission game, he may find it difficult to ground Temirov, forcing a high-stakes kickboxing match where Temirov’s 2.52 knockdown average is a constant threat.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.