← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovSteve ErcegRamazan Temirov

Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov — Flyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 25, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Co-Main · FlyweightID · 10E03417-3E1B-4CE3-B3F8-017C7C749E38

Rank #6 Flyweight · Flyweight

Steve Erceg

"Astroboy"

14-4-0 · MMA

Rank #21 Flyweight · Flyweight

Ramazan Temirov

"Temurlan"

19-3-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Erceg

58%

Edge16%

Temirov

42%

Skill Comparison

79
76
Striking
63
65
Wrestling
88
75
Cardio
75
95
Takedown Defense
82
85
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

ErcegMetricTemirov
5'8"Height5'4"
68.5"Reach63"
29Age29
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
57%Finish Rate63%

Career Records

ErcegMetricTemirov
3Wins by KO/TKO1
1Wins by Submission0
5First-Round Finishes10
4.64Sig. Strikes / Min4.37
4.07Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.93
47%Striking Accuracy40%
55%Striking Defense59%
0.13Knockdown Avg / 15 min2.52
1.13Takedowns / 15 min0.84
28%Takedown Accuracy50%
67%Takedown Defense100%
0.40Submissions / 15 min0
14:56Avg. Fight Time08:55

Strike Distribution

Erceg

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

74%

Body

18%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Erceg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 89%Standing89%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 2%Ground2%

Primary Position Standing

Temirov

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

77%

Body

22%

Leg

1%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Temirov

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 85%Standing85%
Clinch — 12%Clinch12%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Kalshi

Erceg43%
Temirov57%

Masses favor Temirov · Erceg +130 / Temirov -150

Latest News

Erceg

Strengths

  • Elite distance management and range control
  • High-level BJJ with 6 career submission wins
  • Proven durability against world-class opposition

Weaknesses

  • Absorbs significant damage (4.07 SApM)
  • Low takedown accuracy (28%)
  • Struggles to keep opponents grounded

Opportunities

  • Use reach to keep the aggressive Temirov at the end of punches
  • Drag the fight into the latter half to exploit cardio gaps
  • Initiate clinches to fatigue Temirov's explosive muscles

Threats

  • Temirov's first-round finishing power (10 wins)
  • Severe knockdowns from looping overhand rights
  • Inability to secure takedowns against 100% defense
Temirov

Strengths

  • Exceptional 100% UFC takedown defense rate
  • Absurd knockdown frequency (2.52 per 15 mins)
  • Strong initial explosiveness in round one

Weaknesses

  • Short reach (63") for the weight class
  • Lower strike output (4.37 SLpM) over long durations
  • Limited submission threat at UFC level

Opportunities

  • Counter Erceg's lunging entries with power strikes
  • Punish Erceg's 4.07 SApM defensive gaps
  • Force a brawl where reach matters less than impact

Threats

  • Getting out-pointed by Erceg's consistent jab
  • Fatigue setting in against Erceg's relentless pace
  • Vulnerability to technical counters during blitzes

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Erceg
Key Advantages
  • Significant 5.5-inch reach advantage for distance management
  • Superior volume at 4.64 SLpM vs Temirov's 4.37 SLpM
  • Proven experience in five-round main event conditions
  • Technical submissions (6 wins) to exploit ground scrambles
Potential Concerns
  • Temirov's 100% takedown defense suggests Erceg must win on the feet
  • Temirov's massive 2.52 knockdown avg per 15 mins indicates elite power
  • Erceg's 4.07 SApM leaves him open to the Uzbekistan native's heavy counters
AI Analysis

A classic size and reach mismatch where Erceg's technical volume tests Temirov's explosive power.

Forecast

The fight should start with Temirov attempting to close the distance aggressively to negate Erceg's 68.5-inch reach. Erceg will likely use his jab and lateral movement to circle away from Temirov's power hand. Expect a high-paced striking battle where Erceg lands more frequently, but Temirov lands the more impactful single shots. Erceg’s superior cardio and technical volume will likely take over in the second half of the fight. Erceg should win a competitive Unanimous Decision, though he must survive early scares to reach the final bell.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup pits Steve Erceg’s height and range against Ramazan Temirov’s compact explosiveness. Erceg maintains a 4-inch height and 5.5-inch reach edge, which he uses to maintain a high-paced striking rhythm (4.64 SLpM). Temirov, however, is statistically more efficient defensively at 59% strike defense and possesses a perfect 100% takedown defense in the UFC. While Erceg has more diverse ways to win, including a dangerous submission game, he may find it difficult to ground Temirov, forcing a high-stakes kickboxing match where Temirov’s 2.52 knockdown average is a constant threat.

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