← UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. UsmanTommy McMillenAlberto Montes

Tommy McMillen vs Alberto Montes — Featherweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 18 de julio de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman en Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

Cartelera principal · FeatherweightID · B05C2487-ABDD-4A37-A89C-DD13DE3B466E

Rango Unranked · Featherweight

Tommy McMillen

"Gun"

10-0-0 · Wrestler

Rango Unranked · Featherweight

Alberto Montes

"The Promise"

12-1-0 · Striker / BJJ Black Belt

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

McMillen

68%

Ventaja36%

Montes

32%

Comparación de habilidades

94
83
Golpeo
50
50
Lucha
88
82
Cardio
88
81
Defensa de derribos
85
82
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

McMillenMétricaMontes
6'0"Estatura5'7"
74"Alcance69"
28Edad31
OrtodoxaPosturaOrtodoxa
10%Tasa de finalización17%

Récord de carrera

McMillenMétricaMontes
1Victorias por KO/TKO0
0Victorias por sumisión2
9.87Golpes significativos / min5.26
5.54Golpes significativos recibidos / min4.44
53%Precisión de golpeo60%
58%Defensa de golpeo60%
0Derribos / 15 min0
0%Precisión de derribo0%
83%Defensa de derribo77%
0Sumisiones / 15 min6.80

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

— Datos de consenso no disponibles —

Últimas noticias

— Sin noticias recientes —

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • 9.87 SLpM volume provides overwhelming offensive pressure compared to Montes' 5.26
  • Significant physical frame advantage with 5 inches of height and 5 inches of reach
  • 83% takedown defense effectively forces the fight to remain in his preferred striking range
  • 0.79 knockdown average per 15 minutes indicates genuine finishing power behind the volume
Posibles riesgos
  • Absorbing 5.54 strikes per minute shows defensive liability against Montes' 60% accuracy
  • Montes' 6.8 submission average represents an elite opportunistic threat in scrambles
  • Aggressive pace may lead into the front-choke traps (Anaconda/D'Arce) Montes is known for
Análisis del modelo

A battle of elite statistical outliers: McMillen's historic striking volume meets Montes' specialist submission threat.

Pronóstico

McMillen will look to establish his range early using his 5-inch reach advantage to pump the jab and high-volume combinations. Montes will likely struggle to close the distance, potentially attempting to bait McMillen into a clinch to hunt for his signature front chokes. Given McMillen's 83% takedown defense and superior knockdown rate, he is likely to hurt Montes as 'The Promise' tries to crash the pocket. Expect a high-paced first round where McMillen's volume begins to take a toll. The most likely outcome is a TKO victory for McMillen in the second round as the cumulative damage from his 9.87 SLpM pace breaks Montes' guard.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This matchup features a massive discrepancy in striking output. Tommy McMillen is producing nearly double the volume of a standard UFC featherweight at 9.87 SLpM. While his defense allows 5.54 SApM, his reach advantage (74") should help mitigate the 60% accuracy of Montes. Alberto Montes is a dangerous specialist; despite his 'Striker' label, his 6.8 submission average and recent string of Anaconda chokes suggest he wants this fight on the floor or in a front-headlock clinch. However, with both fighters showing a 0.00 TD average, this is likely a kickboxing match where McMillen’s length and historic pace will be difficult for the smaller Montes to overcome.

Picks Terminal Semanal

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