← UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. UsmanTommy McMillenAlberto Montes

Tommy McMillen vs Alberto MontesUFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman

Tommy McMillen vs Alberto Montes — Featherweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 18, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman in Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · FeatherweightID · B05C2487-ABDD-4A37-A89C-DD13DE3B466E

Unranked · Featherweight

Tommy McMillen

"Gun"

11-0-0 · MMA

Rank Unranked · Featherweight

Alberto Montes

"The Promise"

12-1-0 · Striker / BJJ Black Belt

Win Probability Model · v4.2

McMillen

68%

Edge36%

Montes

32%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

McMillenMetricMontes

6' 0"Height5'7"

74"Reach69"

28Age31

—StanceOrthodox

91%Finish Rate17%

Career Records

McMillenMetricMontes

5Wins by KO/TKO0

5Wins by Submission2

9First-Round Finishes—

13.54Sig. Strikes / Min5.26

4.96Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.44

53%Striking Accuracy60%

60%Striking Defense60%

0Knockdown Avg / 15 min—

0Takedowns / 15 min0

0%Takedown Accuracy0%

83%Takedown Defense77%

0Submissions / 15 min6.80

10:49Avg. Fight Time—

Strike Distribution

McMillen

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

74%

Body

21%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing90%

Clinch8%

Ground2%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors McMillen

Key Advantages

9.87 SLpM volume provides overwhelming offensive pressure compared to Montes' 5.26
Significant physical frame advantage with 5 inches of height and 5 inches of reach
83% takedown defense effectively forces the fight to remain in his preferred striking range
0.79 knockdown average per 15 minutes indicates genuine finishing power behind the volume

Potential Concerns

Absorbing 5.54 strikes per minute shows defensive liability against Montes' 60% accuracy
Montes' 6.8 submission average represents an elite opportunistic threat in scrambles
Aggressive pace may lead into the front-choke traps (Anaconda/D'Arce) Montes is known for

AI Analysis

A battle of elite statistical outliers: McMillen's historic striking volume meets Montes' specialist submission threat.

Forecast

McMillen will look to establish his range early using his 5-inch reach advantage to pump the jab and high-volume combinations. Montes will likely struggle to close the distance, potentially attempting to bait McMillen into a clinch to hunt for his signature front chokes. Given McMillen's 83% takedown defense and superior knockdown rate, he is likely to hurt Montes as 'The Promise' tries to crash the pocket. Expect a high-paced first round where McMillen's volume begins to take a toll. The most likely outcome is a TKO victory for McMillen in the second round as the cumulative damage from his 9.87 SLpM pace breaks Montes' guard.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup features a massive discrepancy in striking output. Tommy McMillen is producing nearly double the volume of a standard UFC featherweight at 9.87 SLpM. While his defense allows 5.54 SApM, his reach advantage (74") should help mitigate the 60% accuracy of Montes. Alberto Montes is a dangerous specialist; despite his 'Striker' label, his 6.8 submission average and recent string of Anaconda chokes suggest he wants this fight on the floor or in a front-headlock clinch. However, with both fighters showing a 0.00 TD average, this is likely a kickboxing match where McMillen’s length and historic pace will be difficult for the smaller Montes to overcome.

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