Análisis del modelo

Alden Coria's superior striking defense and elite durability look to overwhelm Stewart Nicoll's high-risk, low-percentage grappling style.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This matchup features a statistical chasm between two flyweights on opposite trajectories. Alden Coria enters with a refined statistical profile, landing 4.69 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.40—a positive differential of +2.29. In stark contrast, Stewart Nicoll is absorbing 5.84 strikes per minute while landing only 3.63, a defensive liability that was exposed in his recent KO loss to Alessandro Costa. Nicoll’s primary path to victory is grappling, yet his stats show a staggering 4% takedown accuracy (1 of 26) and a porous 29% takedown defense. Coria's 71% takedown defense should be more than enough to keep this standing, where he has a clear reach and technical advantage.