← UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. UsmanAlden CoriaStewart Nicoll

Alden Coria vs Stewart NicollUFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman

Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll — Flyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 18, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman in Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · FlyweightID · B591D336-94E1-4D2B-BA7A-8D45F9E3C39F

Unranked · Flyweight

Alden Coria

"Cobra"

13-3-0 · Freestyle

Rank N/A · Flyweight

Stewart Nicoll

"Kakamora"

8-3-0 · Grappler

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Coria

74%

Edge48%

Nicoll

26%

Skill Comparison

74
65
Striking
57
62
Wrestling
63
70
Cardio
56
28
Takedown Defense
74
68
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

CoriaMetricNicoll
5' 8"Height5'5"
67"Reach65"
28Age31
—StanceOrthodox
69%Finish Rate88%

Career Records

CoriaMetricNicoll
5Wins by KO/TKO5
4Wins by Submission1
3First-Round Finishes—
4.05Sig. Strikes / Min3.63
2.21Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.84
44%Striking Accuracy39%
70%Striking Defense49%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min—
1.75Takedowns / 15 min1.63
50%Takedown Accuracy11%
56%Takedown Defense28%
0Submissions / 15 min0

Strike Distribution

Coria

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

15%

Leg

12%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Coria

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 85%Standing85%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 10%Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Coria
Key Advantages
  • Significantly higher striking defense (69% vs 49%)
  • Superior technical efficiency with 4.69 SLpM vs 3.63 SLpM
  • A massive 42% gap in takedown defense (71% vs 29%)
  • Proven chin with 0 KO/TKO losses in 16 professional fights
Potential Concerns
  • Coria's low takedown accuracy (33% from sources) could lead to an ugly clinch battle
  • Nicoll's submission threat (3 first-round finishes) if the fight hits the floor early
  • Nicoll's motivation to snap a three-fight skid since his UFC debut win
AI Analysis

Alden Coria's superior striking defense and elite durability look to overwhelm Stewart Nicoll's high-risk, low-percentage grappling style.

Forecast

Alden Coria is likely to control the center of the Octagon immediately. Given Nicoll's tendency to absorb high volume and his poor defensive metrics, Coria will pick him apart with straight shots and low kicks. Nicoll will likely attempt desperate takedowns, but Coria’s 71% defense will keep him upright. I expect Coria to capitalize on a fatigued or damaged Nicoll in the second round. The most probable outcome is a second-round TKO or a dominant unanimous decision where Coria doubles Nicoll's output. Confidence is high in Coria's ability to navigate Nicoll's early submission attempts.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup features a statistical chasm between two flyweights on opposite trajectories. Alden Coria enters with a refined statistical profile, landing 4.69 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.40—a positive differential of +2.29. In stark contrast, Stewart Nicoll is absorbing 5.84 strikes per minute while landing only 3.63, a defensive liability that was exposed in his recent KO loss to Alessandro Costa. Nicoll’s primary path to victory is grappling, yet his stats show a staggering 4% takedown accuracy (1 of 26) and a porous 29% takedown defense. Coria's 71% takedown defense should be more than enough to keep this standing, where he has a clear reach and technical advantage.

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