← UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. UsmanDricus Du PlessisKamaru Usman

Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman — Middleweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 18 de julio de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman en Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

Evento estelar · MiddleweightID · 5DC68E98-B19D-4E9A-A14A-052C9D34D660

Rango 2 · Middleweight

Dricus Du Plessis

"Stillknocks"

23-3-0 · Kickboxing / Grappling

Rango 10 · Middleweight

Kamaru Usman

"Nigerian Nightmare"

21-4-0 · Wrestling

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Plessis

58%

Ventaja16%

Usman

42%

Comparación de habilidades

84
70
Golpeo
78
65
Lucha
82
85
Cardio
45
97
Defensa de derribos
85
78
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

PlessisMétricaUsman
6'1"Estatura6'0"
76"Alcance76"
32Edad39
OrtodoxaPosturaOrtodoxa
87%Tasa de finalización48%

Récord de carrera

PlessisMétricaUsman
7Victorias por KO/TKO10
3Victorias por sumisión3
8Finalizaciones en 1.º asalto3
5.18Golpes significativos / min3.50
4.33Golpes significativos recibidos / min4.20
48%Precisión de golpeo45%
52%Defensa de golpeo60%
0.40Promedio de knockdowns / 15 min0.44
2.22Derribos / 15 min1.50
51%Precisión de derribo40%
34%Defensa de derribo75%
0.70Sumisiones / 15 min0.30
14:53Tiempo promedio de pelea17:50

Distribución de golpes

Plessis

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

59%

Cuerpo

18%

Pierna

23%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Plessis

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 82%De pie82%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Suelo — 10%Suelo10%

Posición principal De pie

Usman

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

64%

Cuerpo

29%

Pierna

8%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Usman

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 57%De pie57%
Clinch — 17%Clinch17%
Suelo — 26%Suelo26%

Posición principal De pie

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

Kalshi

Plessis67%
Usman33%

Las masas favorecen a Plessis · Plessis -203 / Usman +203

Ver fuente →

Últimas noticias

Plessis

Fortalezas

  • Extremely high offensive output (5.18 SLpM)
  • Dangerous 87% finishing instinct
  • Exceptional recovery and 'weird' physical strength

Debilidades

  • Highly porous takedown defense (34%)
  • Awkward striking mechanics lead to getting hit
  • Tends to gas out in high-intensity scrambles

Oportunidades

  • Capitalize on Usman's aging knees and reduced mobility
  • Use size to bully the former 170lb champion in clinch
  • Overwhelm Usman's lower volume (3.5 SLpM) with pace

Amenazas

  • Usman's elite 97% TDD could force a pure kickboxing match
  • Getting caught by Usman's straight right hand counter
  • Usman's veteran experience in 5-round championship pacings
Usman

Fortalezas

  • All-time great takedown defense (97.3%)
  • Elite wrestling pedigree and championship experience
  • High-level fundamental jab and distance management

Debilidades

  • Advanced age (39) for the middleweight division
  • Diminishing chin durability (1 KO loss)
  • Relatively low offensive submission threat

Oportunidades

  • Expose DDP's 34% TDD to control the location of the fight
  • Use technical precision to counter DDP's wild entries
  • Drag the fight to deep waters where DDP has shown fatigue

Amenazas

  • DDP's power at Middleweight may be too much to absorb
  • Getting pinned against the cage by a larger opponent
  • Falling behind on scorecards due to DDP's 5.18 SLpM volume

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Size and natural strength at 185 lbs
  • Massive 87% finish rate compared to Usman's 48%
  • Active volume (5.18 SLpM) and forward pressure
  • Significant youth advantage (+7 years)
Posibles riesgos
  • Critically low 34% takedown defense against a D-II National Champion
  • Willingness to absorb damage (4.33 SApM)
  • Usman's superior defensive striking (60% defense vs 52%)
Análisis del modelo

A natural middleweight force meets an aging legend stepping up in class.

Pronóstico

Expect a high-paced opening where du Plessis attempts to crowd Usman with heavy combinations. Usman will likely look to ground the fight early to test du Plessis' weak takedown defense, finding success in the first two rounds. However, as the fight progresses, the physical toll of 185 lbs and Usman's age will likely become factors. Du Plessis is notorious for finding finishes even when tired, and his 11 career submissions make him dangerous in any scramble. I forecast a late TKO victory for du Plessis in round 3 or 4 as he overpowers a fatiguing Usman against the fence.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This matchup centers on whether Kamaru Usman's legendary wrestling (2.5 TD avg) can exploit du Plessis' statistical Achilles' heel: a 34% takedown defense. While Usman is technically more refined on the feet (6.5 SLpM), he is the smaller man at middleweight. Du Plessis presents a chaotic, high-pressure style that often breaks opponents through sheer physicality. Usman's 97% career takedown defense suggests du Plessis will struggle to land his own takedowns (2.22 avg), forcing a stand-up war where the South African's power carries more weight.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.