← UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. UsmanDricus Du PlessisKamaru Usman

Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman — Middleweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 18, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman in Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Event · MiddleweightID · 5DC68E98-B19D-4E9A-A14A-052C9D34D660

Rank 2 · Middleweight

Dricus Du Plessis

"Stillknocks"

23-3-0 · Kickboxing / Grappling

Rank 10 · Middleweight

Kamaru Usman

"Nigerian Nightmare"

21-4-0 · Wrestling

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Plessis

58%

Edge16%

Usman

42%

Skill Comparison

84
70
Striking
78
65
Wrestling
82
85
Cardio
45
97
Takedown Defense
85
78
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

PlessisMetricUsman
6'1"Height6'0"
76"Reach76"
32Age39
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
87%Finish Rate48%

Career Records

PlessisMetricUsman
7Wins by KO/TKO10
3Wins by Submission3
8First-Round Finishes3
5.18Sig. Strikes / Min3.50
4.33Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.20
48%Striking Accuracy45%
52%Striking Defense60%
0.40Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.44
2.22Takedowns / 15 min1.50
51%Takedown Accuracy40%
34%Takedown Defense75%
0.70Submissions / 15 min0.30
14:53Avg. Fight Time17:50

Strike Distribution

Plessis

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

18%

Leg

23%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Plessis

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 82%Standing82%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 10%Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

Usman

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

64%

Body

29%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Usman

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 57%Standing57%
Clinch — 17%Clinch17%
Ground — 26%Ground26%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Kalshi

Plessis67%
Usman33%

Masses favor Plessis · Plessis -203 / Usman +203

View source →

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Plessis

Strengths

  • Extremely high offensive output (5.18 SLpM)
  • Dangerous 87% finishing instinct
  • Exceptional recovery and 'weird' physical strength

Weaknesses

  • Highly porous takedown defense (34%)
  • Awkward striking mechanics lead to getting hit
  • Tends to gas out in high-intensity scrambles

Opportunities

  • Capitalize on Usman's aging knees and reduced mobility
  • Use size to bully the former 170lb champion in clinch
  • Overwhelm Usman's lower volume (3.5 SLpM) with pace

Threats

  • Usman's elite 97% TDD could force a pure kickboxing match
  • Getting caught by Usman's straight right hand counter
  • Usman's veteran experience in 5-round championship pacings
Usman

Strengths

  • All-time great takedown defense (97.3%)
  • Elite wrestling pedigree and championship experience
  • High-level fundamental jab and distance management

Weaknesses

  • Advanced age (39) for the middleweight division
  • Diminishing chin durability (1 KO loss)
  • Relatively low offensive submission threat

Opportunities

  • Expose DDP's 34% TDD to control the location of the fight
  • Use technical precision to counter DDP's wild entries
  • Drag the fight to deep waters where DDP has shown fatigue

Threats

  • DDP's power at Middleweight may be too much to absorb
  • Getting pinned against the cage by a larger opponent
  • Falling behind on scorecards due to DDP's 5.18 SLpM volume

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Plessis
Key Advantages
  • Size and natural strength at 185 lbs
  • Massive 87% finish rate compared to Usman's 48%
  • Active volume (5.18 SLpM) and forward pressure
  • Significant youth advantage (+7 years)
Potential Concerns
  • Critically low 34% takedown defense against a D-II National Champion
  • Willingness to absorb damage (4.33 SApM)
  • Usman's superior defensive striking (60% defense vs 52%)
AI Analysis

A natural middleweight force meets an aging legend stepping up in class.

Forecast

Expect a high-paced opening where du Plessis attempts to crowd Usman with heavy combinations. Usman will likely look to ground the fight early to test du Plessis' weak takedown defense, finding success in the first two rounds. However, as the fight progresses, the physical toll of 185 lbs and Usman's age will likely become factors. Du Plessis is notorious for finding finishes even when tired, and his 11 career submissions make him dangerous in any scramble. I forecast a late TKO victory for du Plessis in round 3 or 4 as he overpowers a fatiguing Usman against the fence.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup centers on whether Kamaru Usman's legendary wrestling (2.5 TD avg) can exploit du Plessis' statistical Achilles' heel: a 34% takedown defense. While Usman is technically more refined on the feet (6.5 SLpM), he is the smaller man at middleweight. Du Plessis presents a chaotic, high-pressure style that often breaks opponents through sheer physicality. Usman's 97% career takedown defense suggests du Plessis will struggle to land his own takedowns (2.22 avg), forcing a stand-up war where the South African's power carries more weight.

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