Aleksandar Rakić vs Marcin Tybura — Heavyweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 1 de agosto de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez en Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

Cartelera principal · HeavyweightID · D65C451D-C816-41E7-BB2F-F581ABCF0DDA
Aleksandar Rakić

Rango NR · Heavyweight

Aleksandar Rakić

"Rocket"

14-6-0 · Freestyle

Marcin Tybura

Rango #12 HW · Heavyweight

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"

27-11-0 · MMA

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Rakić

46%

Ventaja8%

Tybura

54%

Comparación de habilidades

65
70
Golpeo
60
65
Lucha
73
70
Cardio
65
79
Defensa de derribos
70
67
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

RakićMétricaTybura
6' 4"Estatura6' 3"
78"Alcance78"
34Edad40
Postura
71%Tasa de finalización63%

Récord de carrera

RakićMétricaTybura
9Victorias por KO/TKO10
1Victorias por sumisión7
8Finalizaciones en 1.º asalto11
Golpes significativos / min3.56
Golpes significativos recibidos / min3.26
Defensa de golpeo55%
Promedio de knockdowns / 15 min0.06
Derribos / 15 min1.30
Defensa de derribo71%
Sumisiones / 15 min0.11

Distribución de golpes

Rakić

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

52%

Cuerpo

16%

Pierna

32%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Rakić

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 66%De pie66%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Suelo — 24%Suelo24%

Posición principal De pie

Tybura

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

65%

Cuerpo

22%

Pierna

13%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Tybura

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 69%De pie69%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Suelo — 21%Suelo21%

Posición principal De pie

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

Datos de consenso no disponibles

Últimas noticias

Sin noticias recientes

Rakić

Fortalezas

  • Younger athlete at age 34
  • Superior 73 cardio rating
  • 8 first-round finishes showcase early power

Debilidades

  • Currently unranked in the division
  • Limited 60 wrestling and 65 TDD
  • Only 1 submission win in 20 career fights

Oportunidades

  • Exploit Tybura's lower 67 chin rating
  • Use reach parity to land at 65 striking clip
  • Push pace in round 3 to test 40-year-old opponent

Amenazas

  • Getting out-pointed by Tybura's 3.56 SLpM
  • Struggling against Tybura's 71% takedown defense
  • Vulnerable to Tybura's 17 combined finishes
Tybura

Fortalezas

  • Ranked #12 at Heavyweight
  • High 79 takedown defense rating
  • Strong historical finishing rate (11 first-round)

Debilidades

  • Lower 67 chin rating at age 40
  • Lower 70 cardio rating compared to A
  • Low 0.06 knockdown average

Oportunidades

  • Use 1.3 TDavg to dictate where fight occurs
  • Utilize 70 striking to outwork A's 65 rating
  • Capitalize on Rakić's 65 TDD with wrestling

Amenazas

  • Regression due to age (40 years old)
  • Rakić's 70 chin durability over three rounds
  • Being caught early by A's 9 career KOs

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Rakić: Holds a slight 3% advantage in cardio (70 vs 73) which may prove vital in a high-altitude or high-pace environment.
  • Tybura: Boasts superior grappling metrics with a 79 TDD rating compared to 65 for Rakić.
  • Tybura: Possesses a more diverse finishing palette with 7 submissions and 10 KOs against Rakić's lone career submission.
  • Rakić: Enters the cage with a better durability profile, holding a 70 chin rating against Tybura's 67.
  • Tybura: Maintains a positive striking differential with 3.56 SLpM while defending 55% of incoming strikes.
Posibles riesgos
  • Rakić: Has failed to break into the official rankings and suffers from a lack of grappling output with a 60 wrestling rating.
  • Tybura: At age 40, his 67 chin rating represents a significant liability against a younger fighter with 9 career KOs.
  • Tybura: Displays a low knockdown average of 0.06 and a modest 0.11 sub average, suggesting a reliance on volume over singular impact.
Análisis del modelo

A veteran heavyweight clash in Belgrade pits the durable Aleksandar Rakić against the seasoned #12 ranked Marcin Tybura in a battle of attrition.

Pronóstico

The model gives Rakić a 46% win probability, reflecting his status as the younger, more durable athlete who lacks the specific ranking prestige of his opponent. Expect a high-volume start from both, as they share 19 combined first-round finishes. Tybura is likely to lean on his 79 TDD to keep the fight standing or initiate clinches to test Rakić's 65 TDD. As the fight progresses, Rakić's 73 cardio could allow him to take over if Tybura’s 40-year-old frame fades, though Tybura's technical striking (70) should keep him ahead on the scorecards. The most probable outcome is a grueling three-round decision or a late stoppage. Confidence in a Tybura victory remains moderate due to his superior wrestling and ranked experience.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

The stylistic dynamic favors Tybura’s technical MMA background, where his 65 wrestling rating and 71% takedown defense provide a path to control the cage. Rakić, a freestyle fighter, will look to utilize his 65 striking rating to capitalize on Tybura’s 67 chin rating, though he faces a deficit in pure offensive output. Tybura averages 3.56 significant strikes per minute, and his ability to combine this with 1.3 takedowns per match could neutralize Rakić's preferred distance. Rakić's 73 cardio provides him the engine to push into later rounds, but he must overcome Tybura's experience reflected in 27 professional wins. The physical parity is notable, as both men share a 78-inch reach and a nearly identical frame, making this a contest of technical efficiency over physical dominance.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.