← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezAleksandar RakićMarcin Tybura

Aleksandar Rakić vs Marcin Tybura — Heavyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 1, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez in Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · HeavyweightID · D65C451D-C816-41E7-BB2F-F581ABCF0DDA
Aleksandar Rakić

Rank NR · Heavyweight

Aleksandar Rakić

"Rocket"

14-6-0 · Freestyle

Marcin Tybura

Rank #12 HW · Heavyweight

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"

27-11-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Rakić

46%

Edge8%

Tybura

54%

Skill Comparison

65
70
Striking
60
65
Wrestling
73
70
Cardio
65
79
Takedown Defense
70
67
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

RakićMetricTybura
6' 4"Height6' 3"
78"Reach78"
34Age40
—Stance—
71%Finish Rate63%

Career Records

RakićMetricTybura
9Wins by KO/TKO10
1Wins by Submission7
8First-Round Finishes11
—Sig. Strikes / Min3.56
—Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.26
—Striking Defense55%
—Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.06
—Takedowns / 15 min1.30
—Takedown Defense71%
—Submissions / 15 min0.11

Strike Distribution

Rakić

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

52%

Body

16%

Leg

32%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Rakić

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 66%Standing66%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 24%Ground24%

Primary Position Standing

Tybura

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

65%

Body

22%

Leg

13%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Tybura

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 69%Standing69%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 21%Ground21%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Rakić

Strengths

  • Younger athlete at age 34
  • Superior 73 cardio rating
  • 8 first-round finishes showcase early power

Weaknesses

  • Currently unranked in the division
  • Limited 60 wrestling and 65 TDD
  • Only 1 submission win in 20 career fights

Opportunities

  • Exploit Tybura's lower 67 chin rating
  • Use reach parity to land at 65 striking clip
  • Push pace in round 3 to test 40-year-old opponent

Threats

  • Getting out-pointed by Tybura's 3.56 SLpM
  • Struggling against Tybura's 71% takedown defense
  • Vulnerable to Tybura's 17 combined finishes
Tybura

Strengths

  • Ranked #12 at Heavyweight
  • High 79 takedown defense rating
  • Strong historical finishing rate (11 first-round)

Weaknesses

  • Lower 67 chin rating at age 40
  • Lower 70 cardio rating compared to A
  • Low 0.06 knockdown average

Opportunities

  • Use 1.3 TDavg to dictate where fight occurs
  • Utilize 70 striking to outwork A's 65 rating
  • Capitalize on Rakić's 65 TDD with wrestling

Threats

  • Regression due to age (40 years old)
  • Rakić's 70 chin durability over three rounds
  • Being caught early by A's 9 career KOs

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Tybura
Key Advantages
  • Rakić: Holds a slight 3% advantage in cardio (70 vs 73) which may prove vital in a high-altitude or high-pace environment.
  • Tybura: Boasts superior grappling metrics with a 79 TDD rating compared to 65 for Rakić.
  • Tybura: Possesses a more diverse finishing palette with 7 submissions and 10 KOs against Rakić's lone career submission.
  • Rakić: Enters the cage with a better durability profile, holding a 70 chin rating against Tybura's 67.
  • Tybura: Maintains a positive striking differential with 3.56 SLpM while defending 55% of incoming strikes.
Potential Concerns
  • Rakić: Has failed to break into the official rankings and suffers from a lack of grappling output with a 60 wrestling rating.
  • Tybura: At age 40, his 67 chin rating represents a significant liability against a younger fighter with 9 career KOs.
  • Tybura: Displays a low knockdown average of 0.06 and a modest 0.11 sub average, suggesting a reliance on volume over singular impact.
AI Analysis

A veteran heavyweight clash in Belgrade pits the durable Aleksandar Rakić against the seasoned #12 ranked Marcin Tybura in a battle of attrition.

Forecast

The model gives Rakić a 46% win probability, reflecting his status as the younger, more durable athlete who lacks the specific ranking prestige of his opponent. Expect a high-volume start from both, as they share 19 combined first-round finishes. Tybura is likely to lean on his 79 TDD to keep the fight standing or initiate clinches to test Rakić's 65 TDD. As the fight progresses, Rakić's 73 cardio could allow him to take over if Tybura’s 40-year-old frame fades, though Tybura's technical striking (70) should keep him ahead on the scorecards. The most probable outcome is a grueling three-round decision or a late stoppage. Confidence in a Tybura victory remains moderate due to his superior wrestling and ranked experience.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

The stylistic dynamic favors Tybura’s technical MMA background, where his 65 wrestling rating and 71% takedown defense provide a path to control the cage. Rakić, a freestyle fighter, will look to utilize his 65 striking rating to capitalize on Tybura’s 67 chin rating, though he faces a deficit in pure offensive output. Tybura averages 3.56 significant strikes per minute, and his ability to combine this with 1.3 takedowns per match could neutralize Rakić's preferred distance. Rakić's 73 cardio provides him the engine to push into later rounds, but he must overcome Tybura's experience reflected in 27 professional wins. The physical parity is notable, as both men share a 78-inch reach and a nearly identical frame, making this a contest of technical efficiency over physical dominance.

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