Daniel Rodriguez vs Uroš Medić — Welterweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 1 de agosto de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez en Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

Evento estelar · WelterweightID · BAE157AA-4E70-4FBA-86B4-C5048F0096E8
Daniel Rodriguez

Rango #15 WW · Welterweight

Daniel Rodriguez

"D-Rod"

20-5-0 · Freestyle

Uroš Medić

Rango #14 WW · Welterweight

Uroš Medić

"The Doctor"

13-3-0 · MMA

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Rodriguez

45%

Ventaja10%

Medić

55%

Comparación de habilidades

90
86
Golpeo
55
52
Lucha
70
70
Cardio
73
65
Defensa de derribos
64
70
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

RodriguezMétricaMedić
6' 1"Estatura6' 1"
74"Alcance71"
39Edad33
Postura
65%Tasa de finalización100%

Récord de carrera

RodriguezMétricaMedić
9Victorias por KO/TKO11
4Victorias por sumisión2
5Finalizaciones en 1.º asalto10
7.20Golpes significativos / min5.59
5.40Golpes significativos recibidos / min3.42
58%Defensa de golpeo57%
0.59Promedio de knockdowns / 15 min3.42
0.51Derribos / 15 min0.34
64%Defensa de derribo56%
0.08Sumisiones / 15 min0

Distribución de golpes

Rodriguez

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

62%

Cuerpo

20%

Pierna

18%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Rodriguez

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 94%De pie94%
Clinch — 2%Clinch2%
Suelo — 4%Suelo4%

Posición principal De pie

Medić

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

66%

Cuerpo

24%

Pierna

10%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Medić

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 62%De pie62%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Suelo — 27%Suelo27%

Posición principal De pie

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

Datos de consenso no disponibles

Últimas noticias

Sin noticias recientes

Rodriguez

Fortalezas

  • Elite volume (7.2 SLpM)
  • 74-inch reach advantage
  • 90-rated striking model

Debilidades

  • High damage intake (5.4 SApM)
  • 39 years of age
  • Low chin rating (64)

Oportunidades

  • Drag opponent into deep waters
  • Exploit Medic 56% TD defense
  • Win via volume-based decision

Amenazas

  • Medic 3.42 KDavg power
  • Medic 10 first-round finishes
  • Early explosive KO
Medić

Fortalezas

  • Extremely high KDavg (3.42)
  • 100% career finish rate
  • 70-rated chin and durability

Debilidades

  • No decision wins (0-0)
  • Lower striking volume (5.59)
  • 65-rated TDD model

Oportunidades

  • Aggressive round 1 blitz
  • Countering Rodriguez's 5.4 SApM
  • Youth advantage at age 33

Amenazas

  • Rodriguez high-volume jab
  • Stamina issues in later rounds
  • Veteran experience gap

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Rodriguez: 7.2 SLpM volume significantly outpaces Medić's 5.59 output by nearly 29%.
  • Rodriguez: Holds a 3-inch reach advantage (74" vs 71") which aids his 90-rated striking model.
  • Rodriguez: Superior takedown defense of 64% vs 56% likely keeps the fight in his preferred striking range.
  • Medic: Massive 3.42 KDavg indicates a lethal power advantage compared to Rodriguez's 0.59 KDavg.
  • Medic: Boasts a 100% finish rate with 10 first-round finishes, suggesting a dangerous early-game threat.
Posibles riesgos
  • Rodriguez: At age 39, his 64-rated chin may struggle against an opponent with a 3.42 KDavg.
  • Rodriguez: High 5.4 SApM suggests he absorbs significant damage while maintaining his high-volume pace.
  • Medic: Lacks experience in deep waters with zero decision wins on his professional record.
  • Medic: 56% takedown defense and 65-rated TDD model are vulnerabilities against high-level MMA pressure.
Análisis del modelo

A classic striking battle features high-volume veteran Daniel Rodriguez against the explosive finishing power of Uroš Medić in a clash of ranked welterweights.

Pronóstico

Expect a frantic first round where Medić attempts to add to his 10 first-round finishes by hunting for a knockdown using his 3.42 KDavg. Rodriguez will attempt to weather the early storm, utilizing his 74-inch reach and high-volume jabs to disrupt Medić's timing. As the fight progresses, Rodriguez's superior 7.2 SLpM should allow him to pull ahead on the scorecards, provided his 64-rated chin holds up against the power. However, the model gives Rodriguez a 45% win probability because his defensive deficiencies (5.4 SApM) align poorly with Medić's explosive finishing ability. If Medić fails to find the finish in the first 7 minutes, Rodriguez's experience and volume make a late decision feasible, but the threat of a Medić KO remains the primary deciding factor.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

The striking metrics present a high-risk, high-reward scenario where Rodriguez’s 7.2 SLpM volume meets Medić’s extreme 3.42 KDavg power. Rodriguez relies on a relentless 90-rated freestyle striking approach, but his 5.4 SApM indicates he is often hit clean, which is dangerous against an opponent with 11 career knockouts. Medić maintains a lower volume but is highly efficient, having secured 10 first-round finishes, though he faces a veteran with a 58% striking defense. While Rodriguez has the superior wrestling (55 model) and TDD (64%), the lack of offensive grappling from both suggests a stand-up war. The age gap is notable, with Rodriguez at 39 facing a younger, fresher athlete in the 33-year-old Medić.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.