← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezDaniel RodriguezUroš Medić

Daniel Rodriguez vs Uroš Medić — Welterweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 1, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez in Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Event · WelterweightID · BAE157AA-4E70-4FBA-86B4-C5048F0096E8
Daniel Rodriguez

Rank #15 WW · Welterweight

Daniel Rodriguez

"D-Rod"

20-5-0 · Freestyle

Uroš Medić

Rank #14 WW · Welterweight

Uroš Medić

"The Doctor"

13-3-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Rodriguez

45%

Edge10%

Medić

55%

Skill Comparison

90
86
Striking
55
52
Wrestling
70
70
Cardio
73
65
Takedown Defense
64
70
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

RodriguezMetricMedić
6' 1"Height6' 1"
74"Reach71"
39Age33
—Stance—
65%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

RodriguezMetricMedić
9Wins by KO/TKO11
4Wins by Submission2
5First-Round Finishes10
7.20Sig. Strikes / Min5.59
5.40Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.42
58%Striking Defense57%
0.59Knockdown Avg / 15 min3.42
0.51Takedowns / 15 min0.34
64%Takedown Defense56%
0.08Submissions / 15 min0

Strike Distribution

Rodriguez

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

62%

Body

20%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Rodriguez

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 94%Standing94%
Clinch — 2%Clinch2%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Medić

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

66%

Body

24%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Medić

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 62%Standing62%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Ground — 27%Ground27%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Rodriguez

Strengths

  • Elite volume (7.2 SLpM)
  • 74-inch reach advantage
  • 90-rated striking model

Weaknesses

  • High damage intake (5.4 SApM)
  • 39 years of age
  • Low chin rating (64)

Opportunities

  • Drag opponent into deep waters
  • Exploit Medic 56% TD defense
  • Win via volume-based decision

Threats

  • Medic 3.42 KDavg power
  • Medic 10 first-round finishes
  • Early explosive KO
Medić

Strengths

  • Extremely high KDavg (3.42)
  • 100% career finish rate
  • 70-rated chin and durability

Weaknesses

  • No decision wins (0-0)
  • Lower striking volume (5.59)
  • 65-rated TDD model

Opportunities

  • Aggressive round 1 blitz
  • Countering Rodriguez's 5.4 SApM
  • Youth advantage at age 33

Threats

  • Rodriguez high-volume jab
  • Stamina issues in later rounds
  • Veteran experience gap

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Medić
Key Advantages
  • Rodriguez: 7.2 SLpM volume significantly outpaces Medić's 5.59 output by nearly 29%.
  • Rodriguez: Holds a 3-inch reach advantage (74" vs 71") which aids his 90-rated striking model.
  • Rodriguez: Superior takedown defense of 64% vs 56% likely keeps the fight in his preferred striking range.
  • Medic: Massive 3.42 KDavg indicates a lethal power advantage compared to Rodriguez's 0.59 KDavg.
  • Medic: Boasts a 100% finish rate with 10 first-round finishes, suggesting a dangerous early-game threat.
Potential Concerns
  • Rodriguez: At age 39, his 64-rated chin may struggle against an opponent with a 3.42 KDavg.
  • Rodriguez: High 5.4 SApM suggests he absorbs significant damage while maintaining his high-volume pace.
  • Medic: Lacks experience in deep waters with zero decision wins on his professional record.
  • Medic: 56% takedown defense and 65-rated TDD model are vulnerabilities against high-level MMA pressure.
AI Analysis

A classic striking battle features high-volume veteran Daniel Rodriguez against the explosive finishing power of Uroš Medić in a clash of ranked welterweights.

Forecast

Expect a frantic first round where Medić attempts to add to his 10 first-round finishes by hunting for a knockdown using his 3.42 KDavg. Rodriguez will attempt to weather the early storm, utilizing his 74-inch reach and high-volume jabs to disrupt Medić's timing. As the fight progresses, Rodriguez's superior 7.2 SLpM should allow him to pull ahead on the scorecards, provided his 64-rated chin holds up against the power. However, the model gives Rodriguez a 45% win probability because his defensive deficiencies (5.4 SApM) align poorly with Medić's explosive finishing ability. If Medić fails to find the finish in the first 7 minutes, Rodriguez's experience and volume make a late decision feasible, but the threat of a Medić KO remains the primary deciding factor.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

The striking metrics present a high-risk, high-reward scenario where Rodriguez’s 7.2 SLpM volume meets Medić’s extreme 3.42 KDavg power. Rodriguez relies on a relentless 90-rated freestyle striking approach, but his 5.4 SApM indicates he is often hit clean, which is dangerous against an opponent with 11 career knockouts. Medić maintains a lower volume but is highly efficient, having secured 10 first-round finishes, though he faces a veteran with a 58% striking defense. While Rodriguez has the superior wrestling (55 model) and TDD (64%), the lack of offensive grappling from both suggests a stand-up war. The age gap is notable, with Rodriguez at 39 facing a younger, fresher athlete in the 33-year-old Medić.

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