← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezJan BłachowiczNavajo Stirling

Jan Błachowicz vs Navajo Stirling — Light Heavyweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 1 de agosto de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez en Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

slot.Co-Main · Light HeavyweightID · 9C1CF3B3-89F2-4D39-88D7-55AC185B0567
Jan Błachowicz

Rango #4 LHW · Light Heavyweight

Jan Błachowicz

29-11-2 · MMA

Navajo Stirling

Rango #9 LHW · Light Heavyweight

Navajo Stirling

10-0-0 · Kickboxer

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Błachowicz

34%

Ventaja32%

Stirling

66%

Comparación de habilidades

70
91
Golpeo
61
60
Lucha
67
74
Cardio
77
79
Defensa de derribos
67
73
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

BłachowiczMétricaStirling
6' 2"Estatura6' 4"
78"Alcance79"
43Edad28
—Postura—
62%Tasa de finalización60%

Récord de carrera

BłachowiczMétricaStirling
9Victorias por KO/TKO6
9Victorias por sumisión0
7Finalizaciones en 1.º asalto2
3.55Golpes significativos / min6.24
3.14Golpes significativos recibidos / min2.62
52%Defensa de golpeo58%
0.36Promedio de knockdowns / 15 min0.64
0.98Derribos / 15 min0.86
69%Defensa de derribo71%
0.36Sumisiones / 15 min0

Distribución de golpes

Błachowicz

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

61%

Cuerpo

21%

Pierna

18%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Błachowicz

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 78%De pie78%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Suelo — 12%Suelo12%

Posición principal De pie

Stirling

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

49%

Cuerpo

33%

Pierna

18%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Stirling

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 80%De pie80%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Suelo — 14%Suelo14%

Posición principal De pie

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

— Datos de consenso no disponibles —

Últimas noticias

— Sin noticias recientes —

Błachowicz

Fortalezas

  • 9 submission wins
  • 77 TDD rating
  • 9 KO/TKO wins

Debilidades

  • 43 years of age
  • Low 3.55 SLpM volume
  • 67 cardio rating

Oportunidades

  • Exploit Stirling's 0 SubAvg
  • Use 0.98 TDavg to ground kickboxer
  • Find 8th first-round finish

Amenazas

  • High 6.24 SLpM from opponent
  • 0.64 KDavg striking power
  • Youth and speed deficit
Stirling

Fortalezas

  • Elite 6.24 SLpM output
  • Undefeated 10-0 record
  • 91 striking model rating

Debilidades

  • No submission victories
  • Lower TDavg at 0.86
  • Fewer 1st round finishes

Oportunidades

  • 15-year age advantage
  • Outwork vet with 74 cardio
  • Use 79-inch reach advantage

Amenazas

  • Błachowicz's veteran savvy
  • Opponent's 9 submission threats
  • Polish Power/0.36 KDavg

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Stirling maintains a massive volume advantage with a 6.24 SLpM compared to Błachowicz's 3.55.
  • Stirling is 15 years younger than his 43-year-old opponent, supporting his superior 74 cardio and 73 chin ratings.
  • Stirling possesses favorable physical dimensions with a two-inch height advantage and a one-inch reach edge.
  • Błachowicz holds the experience edge with 42 professional fights and a high 0.36 SubAvg relative to Stirling's 0.
Posibles riesgos
  • Błachowicz faces a significant striking differential, absorbing 3.14 SApM while Stirling only absorbs 2.62.
  • Stirling lacks a recorded submission history (0 SubAvg), potentially leaving him vulnerable to Błachowicz's 9 career submission wins.
  • Błachowicz's age of 43 suggests a potential decline in durability against Stirling's 0.64 KDavg.
Análisis del modelo

A classic generational clash pits the legendary 'Legendary Polish Power' of veteran Jan Błachowicz against the soaring, undefeated kickboxing phenom Navajo Stirling in Belgrade.

Pronóstico

The pace will likely be dictated by Stirling, whose 6.24 SLpM will force Błachowicz into a defensive posture early. Given Błachowicz's 34% win probability, he will need to rely on his 77 TDD and 61 wrestling to force a clinch game, yet Stirling's 74 cardio rating suggests he can maintain his output over three rounds. Stirling is expected to use his 79-inch reach to pepper the veteran, potentially finding a knockdown given his 0.64 KDavg. If Błachowicz cannot secure a submission, Stirling’s volume and 58% striking defense should carry him to a decision or late TKO. Confidence is high that Stirling's youth and striking metrics will overwhelm the 43-year-old former champion.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This matchup centers on the staggering statistical gap in striking efficiency and volume. Navajo Stirling operates at a pace of 6.24 SLpM, nearly doubling the 3.55 SLpM output of Jan Błachowicz, while maintaining a higher striking defense rate of 58%. While Błachowicz remains a threat on the mat with 9 submission wins and a 0.36 SubAvg, Stirling’s 79 TDD rating and 71% takedown defense suggest he can keep the fight standing. Błachowicz will likely look to utilize his 0.98 TDavg to neutralize Stirling's 91-rated striking, but he must navigate a reach disadvantage and Stirling's 0.64 KDavg. The numbers suggest a battle where the veteren's grappling experience must overcome the speed and volume of the younger prospect.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.