← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezJan BłachowiczNavajo Stirling

Jan Błachowicz vs Navajo Stirling — Light Heavyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 1, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez in Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Co-Main · Light HeavyweightID · 9C1CF3B3-89F2-4D39-88D7-55AC185B0567
Jan Błachowicz

Rank #4 LHW · Light Heavyweight

Jan Błachowicz

29-11-2 · MMA

Navajo Stirling

Rank #9 LHW · Light Heavyweight

Navajo Stirling

10-0-0 · Kickboxer

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Błachowicz

34%

Edge32%

Stirling

66%

Skill Comparison

70
91
Striking
61
60
Wrestling
67
74
Cardio
77
79
Takedown Defense
67
73
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

BłachowiczMetricStirling
6' 2"Height6' 4"
78"Reach79"
43Age28
—Stance—
62%Finish Rate60%

Career Records

BłachowiczMetricStirling
9Wins by KO/TKO6
9Wins by Submission0
7First-Round Finishes2
3.55Sig. Strikes / Min6.24
3.14Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.62
52%Striking Defense58%
0.36Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.64
0.98Takedowns / 15 min0.86
69%Takedown Defense71%
0.36Submissions / 15 min0

Strike Distribution

Błachowicz

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

61%

Body

21%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Błachowicz

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 78%Standing78%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 12%Ground12%

Primary Position Standing

Stirling

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

49%

Body

33%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Stirling

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 80%Standing80%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Ground — 14%Ground14%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Błachowicz

Strengths

  • 9 submission wins
  • 77 TDD rating
  • 9 KO/TKO wins

Weaknesses

  • 43 years of age
  • Low 3.55 SLpM volume
  • 67 cardio rating

Opportunities

  • Exploit Stirling's 0 SubAvg
  • Use 0.98 TDavg to ground kickboxer
  • Find 8th first-round finish

Threats

  • High 6.24 SLpM from opponent
  • 0.64 KDavg striking power
  • Youth and speed deficit
Stirling

Strengths

  • Elite 6.24 SLpM output
  • Undefeated 10-0 record
  • 91 striking model rating

Weaknesses

  • No submission victories
  • Lower TDavg at 0.86
  • Fewer 1st round finishes

Opportunities

  • 15-year age advantage
  • Outwork vet with 74 cardio
  • Use 79-inch reach advantage

Threats

  • Błachowicz's veteran savvy
  • Opponent's 9 submission threats
  • Polish Power/0.36 KDavg

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Stirling
Key Advantages
  • Stirling maintains a massive volume advantage with a 6.24 SLpM compared to Błachowicz's 3.55.
  • Stirling is 15 years younger than his 43-year-old opponent, supporting his superior 74 cardio and 73 chin ratings.
  • Stirling possesses favorable physical dimensions with a two-inch height advantage and a one-inch reach edge.
  • Błachowicz holds the experience edge with 42 professional fights and a high 0.36 SubAvg relative to Stirling's 0.
Potential Concerns
  • Błachowicz faces a significant striking differential, absorbing 3.14 SApM while Stirling only absorbs 2.62.
  • Stirling lacks a recorded submission history (0 SubAvg), potentially leaving him vulnerable to Błachowicz's 9 career submission wins.
  • Błachowicz's age of 43 suggests a potential decline in durability against Stirling's 0.64 KDavg.
AI Analysis

A classic generational clash pits the legendary 'Legendary Polish Power' of veteran Jan Błachowicz against the soaring, undefeated kickboxing phenom Navajo Stirling in Belgrade.

Forecast

The pace will likely be dictated by Stirling, whose 6.24 SLpM will force Błachowicz into a defensive posture early. Given Błachowicz's 34% win probability, he will need to rely on his 77 TDD and 61 wrestling to force a clinch game, yet Stirling's 74 cardio rating suggests he can maintain his output over three rounds. Stirling is expected to use his 79-inch reach to pepper the veteran, potentially finding a knockdown given his 0.64 KDavg. If Błachowicz cannot secure a submission, Stirling’s volume and 58% striking defense should carry him to a decision or late TKO. Confidence is high that Stirling's youth and striking metrics will overwhelm the 43-year-old former champion.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup centers on the staggering statistical gap in striking efficiency and volume. Navajo Stirling operates at a pace of 6.24 SLpM, nearly doubling the 3.55 SLpM output of Jan Błachowicz, while maintaining a higher striking defense rate of 58%. While Błachowicz remains a threat on the mat with 9 submission wins and a 0.36 SubAvg, Stirling’s 79 TDD rating and 71% takedown defense suggest he can keep the fight standing. Błachowicz will likely look to utilize his 0.98 TDavg to neutralize Stirling's 91-rated striking, but he must navigate a reach disadvantage and Stirling's 0.64 KDavg. The numbers suggest a battle where the veteren's grappling experience must overcome the speed and volume of the younger prospect.

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