← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezJosias MusasaMark Vologdin

Josias Musasa vs Mark Vologdin — Bantamweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 1 de agosto de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez en Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

slot.Prelim · BantamweightID · 35673BAC-462A-46AD-A2E8-5B5061983E58
Josias Musasa

Rango NR · Bantamweight

Josias Musasa

"The KO Wizard"

8-2-0 · Kickboxer

Rango NR · Bantamweight

Mark Vologdin

12-4-2 · Karate

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Musasa

48%

Ventaja4%

Vologdin

52%

Comparación de habilidades

62
79
Golpeo
60
55
Lucha
71
72
Cardio
85
66
Defensa de derribos
67
51
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

MusasaMétricaVologdin
5' 8"Estatura5' 3"
74"Alcance65"
26Edad26
—Postura—
88%Tasa de finalización83%

Récord de carrera

MusasaMétricaVologdin
7Victorias por KO/TKO6
0Victorias por sumisión4
6Finalizaciones en 1.º asalto6
3.19Golpes significativos / min6.93
4.39Golpes significativos recibidos / min10
36%Defensa de golpeo41%
0Promedio de knockdowns / 15 min0
0.90Derribos / 15 min0.50
81%Defensa de derribo57%
0.45Sumisiones / 15 min0

Distribución de golpes

Musasa

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

54%

Cuerpo

23%

Pierna

23%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Musasa

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 63%De pie63%
Clinch — 34%Clinch34%
Suelo — 3%Suelo3%

Posición principal De pie

Vologdin

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

65%

Cuerpo

25%

Pierna

10%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Vologdin

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 87%De pie87%
Clinch — 13%Clinch13%
Suelo — 0%Suelo0%

Posición principal De pie

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

— Datos de consenso no disponibles —

Últimas noticias

— Sin noticias recientes —

Musasa

Fortalezas

  • Elite 74-inch reach for 135lb
  • Stout 81% takedown defense
  • Proven 70% KO finish rate

Debilidades

  • Low volume (3.19 SLpM)
  • Poor striking defense (36%)
  • Negative striking differential

Oportunidades

  • Exploit Vologdin's 51 chin rating
  • Neutralize grappling with 85-TDD
  • Utilize 5-inch height advantage

Amenazas

  • Overwhelmed by Vologdin's 6.93 SLpM
  • Susceptible to high SApM (4.39)
Vologdin

Fortalezas

  • Elite volume (6.93 SLpM)
  • High first-round finish rate
  • Diverse win map (6 KO/4 SUB)

Debilidades

  • Extreme defensive liability (10 SApM)
  • Weak takedown defense (57%)
  • Significant reach disadvantage

Oportunidades

  • Drown Musasa in striking volume
  • Test Musasa's low 36% str. defense
  • Force high pace with 72 cardio

Amenazas

  • Chin (51) vs Musasa's power
  • Struggles to close 9-inch reach gap

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Musasa: 9-inch reach advantage (74" vs 65") and 5-inch height advantage allows for superior distance management.
  • Musasa: 81% takedown defense significantly outclasses Vologdin’s 57% mark, likely keeping the fight standing.
  • Vologdin: 6.93 SLpM offers more than double the striking output of Musasa's 3.19 SLpM.
  • Musasa: TDD model score of 85 provides a significant cushion against Vologdin's wrestling model score of 55.
Posibles riesgos
  • Vologdin: Absorbing 10.00 significant strikes per minute (SApM) suggests a dangerously porous defense against a power hitter.
  • Musasa: 36% striking defense is underwhelming, leaving him open to Vologdin's high-frequency Karate blitzes.
  • Vologdin: A chin model score of 51 is a major liability against an opponent with 7 KO wins and 6 first-round finishes.
Análisis del modelo

A classic clash of archetypes pits the massive reach and defensive integrity of Josias Musasa against the high-volume, high-risk Karate style of Mark Vologdin.

Pronóstico

Expect a high-velocity start, as both fighters possess 6 first-round finishes, suggesting the 48% win probability for Musasa is rooted in his ability to survive an early onslaught. Vologdin will likely blitz to overcome the 9-inch reach deficit, creating a chaotic pace that tests Musasa's 36% striking defense. If Musasa can use his 81% TDD to stifle Vologdin, his power should find the target against Vologdin’s 51-rated chin. Vologdin’s volume gives him the edge on scorecards if it goes long, but Musasa’s physical tools make a mid-fight knockout a constant threat. The most likely outcome is a volatile striking battle decided by Musasa's ability to time a heavy counter. I expect a second-round finish via KO if Musasa lands, or a narrow decision for Vologdin if his volume holds.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This bantamweight bout features a massive physical disparity, with Musasa holding a rare 74-inch reach for the division compared to Vologdin's 65-inch span. Musasa will look to utilize his 62-rated striking and 81% takedown defense to keep Vologdin at the end of his range. However, Vologdin’s statistical output is overwhelming, landing 6.93 SLpM, though he pays for this volume by absorbing a staggering 10.00 SApM. Musasa’s lower volume (3.19 SLpM) suggests he is a selective counter-striker, which could be problematic if Vologdin's wrestling (0.5 TDavg) fails to bridge the gap. The fight hinges on whether Musasa's 85-rated TDD can force a striking match where his 5-inch height advantage becomes the deciding factor.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.