← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezJosias MusasaMark Vologdin

Josias Musasa vs Mark Vologdin — Bantamweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 1, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez in Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · BantamweightID · 35673BAC-462A-46AD-A2E8-5B5061983E58
Josias Musasa

Rank NR · Bantamweight

Josias Musasa

"The KO Wizard"

8-2-0 · Kickboxer

Rank NR · Bantamweight

Mark Vologdin

12-4-2 · Karate

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Musasa

48%

Edge4%

Vologdin

52%

Skill Comparison

62
79
Striking
60
55
Wrestling
71
72
Cardio
85
66
Takedown Defense
67
51
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

MusasaMetricVologdin
5' 8"Height5' 3"
74"Reach65"
26Age26
—Stance—
88%Finish Rate83%

Career Records

MusasaMetricVologdin
7Wins by KO/TKO6
0Wins by Submission4
6First-Round Finishes6
3.19Sig. Strikes / Min6.93
4.39Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min10
36%Striking Defense41%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
0.90Takedowns / 15 min0.50
81%Takedown Defense57%
0.45Submissions / 15 min0

Strike Distribution

Musasa

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

54%

Body

23%

Leg

23%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Musasa

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 63%Standing63%
Clinch — 34%Clinch34%
Ground — 3%Ground3%

Primary Position Standing

Vologdin

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

65%

Body

25%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Vologdin

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 87%Standing87%
Clinch — 13%Clinch13%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Musasa

Strengths

  • Elite 74-inch reach for 135lb
  • Stout 81% takedown defense
  • Proven 70% KO finish rate

Weaknesses

  • Low volume (3.19 SLpM)
  • Poor striking defense (36%)
  • Negative striking differential

Opportunities

  • Exploit Vologdin's 51 chin rating
  • Neutralize grappling with 85-TDD
  • Utilize 5-inch height advantage

Threats

  • Overwhelmed by Vologdin's 6.93 SLpM
  • Susceptible to high SApM (4.39)
Vologdin

Strengths

  • Elite volume (6.93 SLpM)
  • High first-round finish rate
  • Diverse win map (6 KO/4 SUB)

Weaknesses

  • Extreme defensive liability (10 SApM)
  • Weak takedown defense (57%)
  • Significant reach disadvantage

Opportunities

  • Drown Musasa in striking volume
  • Test Musasa's low 36% str. defense
  • Force high pace with 72 cardio

Threats

  • Chin (51) vs Musasa's power
  • Struggles to close 9-inch reach gap

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Vologdin
Key Advantages
  • Musasa: 9-inch reach advantage (74" vs 65") and 5-inch height advantage allows for superior distance management.
  • Musasa: 81% takedown defense significantly outclasses Vologdin’s 57% mark, likely keeping the fight standing.
  • Vologdin: 6.93 SLpM offers more than double the striking output of Musasa's 3.19 SLpM.
  • Musasa: TDD model score of 85 provides a significant cushion against Vologdin's wrestling model score of 55.
Potential Concerns
  • Vologdin: Absorbing 10.00 significant strikes per minute (SApM) suggests a dangerously porous defense against a power hitter.
  • Musasa: 36% striking defense is underwhelming, leaving him open to Vologdin's high-frequency Karate blitzes.
  • Vologdin: A chin model score of 51 is a major liability against an opponent with 7 KO wins and 6 first-round finishes.
AI Analysis

A classic clash of archetypes pits the massive reach and defensive integrity of Josias Musasa against the high-volume, high-risk Karate style of Mark Vologdin.

Forecast

Expect a high-velocity start, as both fighters possess 6 first-round finishes, suggesting the 48% win probability for Musasa is rooted in his ability to survive an early onslaught. Vologdin will likely blitz to overcome the 9-inch reach deficit, creating a chaotic pace that tests Musasa's 36% striking defense. If Musasa can use his 81% TDD to stifle Vologdin, his power should find the target against Vologdin’s 51-rated chin. Vologdin’s volume gives him the edge on scorecards if it goes long, but Musasa’s physical tools make a mid-fight knockout a constant threat. The most likely outcome is a volatile striking battle decided by Musasa's ability to time a heavy counter. I expect a second-round finish via KO if Musasa lands, or a narrow decision for Vologdin if his volume holds.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This bantamweight bout features a massive physical disparity, with Musasa holding a rare 74-inch reach for the division compared to Vologdin's 65-inch span. Musasa will look to utilize his 62-rated striking and 81% takedown defense to keep Vologdin at the end of his range. However, Vologdin’s statistical output is overwhelming, landing 6.93 SLpM, though he pays for this volume by absorbing a staggering 10.00 SApM. Musasa’s lower volume (3.19 SLpM) suggests he is a selective counter-striker, which could be problematic if Vologdin's wrestling (0.5 TDavg) fails to bridge the gap. The fight hinges on whether Musasa's 85-rated TDD can force a striking match where his 5-inch height advantage becomes the deciding factor.

Picks Terminal Weekly

A tactical UFC briefing — Monday previews, Friday updates.

Every Monday: the full card preview, key matchups, and the model's forecast. Every Friday: fresh updates as fight night approaches. Free, no fluff, one-click unsubscribe.