← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezMichael OliveiraOban Elliott

Michael Oliveira vs Oban Elliott — Welterweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 1 de agosto de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez en Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

slot.Prelim · WelterweightID · 924AD9CE-F89B-4826-9B8B-2DA7B69CC789

Rango NR · Welterweight

Michael Oliveira

"PQD"

9-0-0 · —

Oban Elliott

Rango NR · Welterweight

Oban Elliott

"The Welsh Gangster"

12-4-0 · MMA

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Oliveira

58%

Ventaja16%

Elliott

42%

Comparación de habilidades

95
73
Golpeo
45
68
Lucha
70
75
Cardio
95
62
Defensa de derribos
70
74
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

OliveiraMétricaElliott
6' 1"Estatura6' 0"
78.5"Alcance72"
28Edad28
—Postura—
—Tasa de finalización50%

Récord de carrera

OliveiraMétricaElliott
—Victorias por KO/TKO3
—Victorias por sumisión3
—Finalizaciones en 1.º asalto4
8.40Golpes significativos / min3.62
3.36Golpes significativos recibidos / min2.24
66%Defensa de golpeo61%
5.04Promedio de knockdowns / 15 min0.19
0Derribos / 15 min1.52
100%Defensa de derribo52%
0Sumisiones / 15 min0

Distribución de golpes

Oliveira

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

76%

Cuerpo

16%

Pierna

8%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Oliveira

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 89%De pie89%
Clinch — 1%Clinch1%
Suelo — 10%Suelo10%

Posición principal De pie

Elliott

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

69%

Cuerpo

15%

Pierna

16%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Elliott

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 73%De pie73%
Clinch — 5%Clinch5%
Suelo — 22%Suelo22%

Posición principal De pie

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

— Datos de consenso no disponibles —

Últimas noticias

— Sin noticias recientes —

Oliveira

Fortalezas

  • Elite knockout power (5.04 KDavg)
  • Unmatched takedown defense (100%)
  • Massive 78.5-inch reach

Debilidades

  • Zero offensive grappling presence
  • Absorbs more strikes (3.36 SApM)
  • Lower cage experience (9-0)

Oportunidades

  • Exploit Elliott's 52% TD defense
  • Dictate range with 6.5-inch reach
  • Maintain undefeated 9-0 record

Amenazas

  • Elliott's veteran experience
  • Potential fatigue if past round 1
  • Elliott's 3 submission wins
Elliott

Fortalezas

  • Balanced MMA style (3 KO/3 SUB)
  • Stronger defensive metrics (2.24 SApM)
  • Proactive wrestling (1.52 TDavg)

Debilidades

  • Significant reach disadvantage
  • Lower striking volume (3.62 SLpM)
  • Low knockdown frequency (0.19)

Oportunidades

  • Test Oliveira's 70-rated cardio
  • Force clinches to negate reach
  • Target Oliveira's 70-rated chin

Amenazas

  • Oliveira's 95-rated striking
  • Oliveira's elite 8.4 SLpM volume
  • Early first-round KO power

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Oliveira holds a massive 6.5-inch reach advantage (78.5" vs 72") allowing him to control range.
  • Oliveira displays elite striking volume with 8.4 SLpM, out-landing Elliott’s 3.62 SLpM by 132%.
  • Oliveira possesses devastating power reflected in a 5.04 KDavg compared to Elliott’s 0.19 KDavg.
  • Oliveira maintains a perfect 100% takedown defense, effectively neutralizing Elliott's 1.52 TDavg.
Posibles riesgos
  • Elliott has significantly more professional cage experience with 16 total fights compared to Oliveira’s 9.
  • Oliveira has a grappling-deficient stat line with 0 takedowns and 0 submissions averaged per 15 minutes.
  • Elliott possesses superior defensive durability with a 2.24 SApM, significantly lower than Oliveira’s 3.36 SApM.
Análisis del modelo

An undefeated knockout specialist looks to maintain his perfect record against a well-rounded veteran in a classic striker-versus-grappler stylistic clash.

Pronóstico

The fight is expected to start at a blistering pace dictated by Oliveira’s high-volume striking and 95-rated striking efficiency. Given Oliveira's 5.04 KDavg and Elliott's 52% takedown defense, the most likely path to victory for the favorite is an early stoppage. Elliott will likely attempt to utilize his wrestling (68-rated) to sap Oliveira's energy, but the reach disadvantage makes entries dangerous. If the fight stays standing, Oliveira's 66% striking defense combined with his reach should allow him to pick Elliott apart. Expect a high-intensity first round where Oliveira’s power finds the mark. The model favors Oliveira at 58%, anticipating a knockout victory within the first two frames.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This welterweight bout hinges on whether Oban Elliott can close the distance against the much longer Michael Oliveira. Oliveira enters with a 9-0-0 record and a staggering 8.4 SLpM, suggesting a hyper-aggressive striking style that utilizes his 78.5-inch reach. While Elliott is the more balanced fighter with a 1.52 TDavg and six decision wins, he faces a statistical wall in Oliveira’s 100% takedown defense. The striking disparity is stark, as Oliveira's 5.04 KDavg indicates a level of power that Elliott, who lands only 3.62 SLpM, may struggle to match. Elliott must rely on his 61% striking defense and 74-rated chin to weather the early storm and force a grappling exchange.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.