← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezMichael OliveiraOban Elliott

Michael Oliveira vs Oban Elliott — Welterweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 1, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez in Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · WelterweightID · 924AD9CE-F89B-4826-9B8B-2DA7B69CC789

Rank NR · Welterweight

Michael Oliveira

"PQD"

9-0-0 · —

Oban Elliott

Rank NR · Welterweight

Oban Elliott

"The Welsh Gangster"

12-4-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Oliveira

58%

Edge16%

Elliott

42%

Skill Comparison

95
73
Striking
45
68
Wrestling
70
75
Cardio
95
62
Takedown Defense
70
74
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

OliveiraMetricElliott
6' 1"Height6' 0"
78.5"Reach72"
28Age28
—Stance—
—Finish Rate50%

Career Records

OliveiraMetricElliott
—Wins by KO/TKO3
—Wins by Submission3
—First-Round Finishes4
8.40Sig. Strikes / Min3.62
3.36Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.24
66%Striking Defense61%
5.04Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.19
0Takedowns / 15 min1.52
100%Takedown Defense52%
0Submissions / 15 min0

Strike Distribution

Oliveira

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

76%

Body

16%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Oliveira

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 89%Standing89%
Clinch — 1%Clinch1%
Ground — 10%Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

Elliott

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

69%

Body

15%

Leg

16%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Elliott

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 73%Standing73%
Clinch — 5%Clinch5%
Ground — 22%Ground22%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Oliveira

Strengths

  • Elite knockout power (5.04 KDavg)
  • Unmatched takedown defense (100%)
  • Massive 78.5-inch reach

Weaknesses

  • Zero offensive grappling presence
  • Absorbs more strikes (3.36 SApM)
  • Lower cage experience (9-0)

Opportunities

  • Exploit Elliott's 52% TD defense
  • Dictate range with 6.5-inch reach
  • Maintain undefeated 9-0 record

Threats

  • Elliott's veteran experience
  • Potential fatigue if past round 1
  • Elliott's 3 submission wins
Elliott

Strengths

  • Balanced MMA style (3 KO/3 SUB)
  • Stronger defensive metrics (2.24 SApM)
  • Proactive wrestling (1.52 TDavg)

Weaknesses

  • Significant reach disadvantage
  • Lower striking volume (3.62 SLpM)
  • Low knockdown frequency (0.19)

Opportunities

  • Test Oliveira's 70-rated cardio
  • Force clinches to negate reach
  • Target Oliveira's 70-rated chin

Threats

  • Oliveira's 95-rated striking
  • Oliveira's elite 8.4 SLpM volume
  • Early first-round KO power

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Oliveira
Key Advantages
  • Oliveira holds a massive 6.5-inch reach advantage (78.5" vs 72") allowing him to control range.
  • Oliveira displays elite striking volume with 8.4 SLpM, out-landing Elliott’s 3.62 SLpM by 132%.
  • Oliveira possesses devastating power reflected in a 5.04 KDavg compared to Elliott’s 0.19 KDavg.
  • Oliveira maintains a perfect 100% takedown defense, effectively neutralizing Elliott's 1.52 TDavg.
Potential Concerns
  • Elliott has significantly more professional cage experience with 16 total fights compared to Oliveira’s 9.
  • Oliveira has a grappling-deficient stat line with 0 takedowns and 0 submissions averaged per 15 minutes.
  • Elliott possesses superior defensive durability with a 2.24 SApM, significantly lower than Oliveira’s 3.36 SApM.
AI Analysis

An undefeated knockout specialist looks to maintain his perfect record against a well-rounded veteran in a classic striker-versus-grappler stylistic clash.

Forecast

The fight is expected to start at a blistering pace dictated by Oliveira’s high-volume striking and 95-rated striking efficiency. Given Oliveira's 5.04 KDavg and Elliott's 52% takedown defense, the most likely path to victory for the favorite is an early stoppage. Elliott will likely attempt to utilize his wrestling (68-rated) to sap Oliveira's energy, but the reach disadvantage makes entries dangerous. If the fight stays standing, Oliveira's 66% striking defense combined with his reach should allow him to pick Elliott apart. Expect a high-intensity first round where Oliveira’s power finds the mark. The model favors Oliveira at 58%, anticipating a knockout victory within the first two frames.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This welterweight bout hinges on whether Oban Elliott can close the distance against the much longer Michael Oliveira. Oliveira enters with a 9-0-0 record and a staggering 8.4 SLpM, suggesting a hyper-aggressive striking style that utilizes his 78.5-inch reach. While Elliott is the more balanced fighter with a 1.52 TDavg and six decision wins, he faces a statistical wall in Oliveira’s 100% takedown defense. The striking disparity is stark, as Oliveira's 5.04 KDavg indicates a level of power that Elliott, who lands only 3.62 SLpM, may struggle to match. Elliott must rely on his 61% striking defense and 74-rated chin to weather the early storm and force a grappling exchange.

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