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Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETCIN @ HOU
Cincinnati Bengals

Away

Cincinnati Bengals

1-0

Houston Texans

Home

Houston Texans

0-1

Model Win Probability

Cincinnati Bengals · Away

31%

Edge38%

Houston Texans · Home

69%

Team Efficiency Comparison

42
45
Offense
39
55
Passing
84
32
Rushing
29
65
Defense
32
26
Pass Rush
55
44
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

CINMetricHOU
-0.006EPA / Play0.012
45.9%Success Rate42.9%
-0.025Dropback EPA0.071
0.025Rush EPA-0.077
8.8%Explosive Play Rate8.2%
48.0%3rd Down Conversion39.3%
68.7%Red Zone TD Rate70.7%
0.035Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.023
14.1%Pressure Rate13.2%

Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Reliant Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Surface
astroturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Houston Texans home game

Player Impact

Joe Burrow

QB

2026 Week 1

CMP/ATT
25/35
Pass yds
254
Pass TD
1
INT
1
Y/A
7.3
Sacks
1

Chase Brown

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
16
Rush yds
56
YPC
3.5
Rush TD
1
Targets
6
Rec
5
Rush share
59.3%

Samaje Perine

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
5
Rush yds
20
YPC
4
Rush TD
0
Targets
3
Rec
3
Rush share
18.5%

Mike Gesicki

TE

2026 Week 1

Targets
7
Rec
5
Rec yds
78
YPR
15.6
Rec TD
1
Target share
20.6%

Tee Higgins

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
6
Rec
3
Rec yds
59
YPR
19.7
Rec TD
0
Target share
17.6%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 1 game

Away · Cincinnati Bengals

Q1
14
Q2
10
Q3
3
Q4
6

Home · Houston Texans

Q1
7
Q2
14
Q3
0
Q4
10

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing edge · HOU

passing

Houston Texans ranks in the 55th percentile for passing against the 39th percentile opposite, a 16-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing edge · CIN

rushing

Cincinnati Bengals ranks in the 84th percentile for rushing against the 32th percentile opposite, a 52-point separation in the blended team profile.

Defense edge · HOU

efficiency

Houston Texans ranks in the 65th percentile for defense against the 29th percentile opposite, a 36-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing usage concentration · HOU

rushing

David Montgomery handled 62.5% of Houston Texans carries in Week 1 (20 attempts, 60 yards).

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Defense: Houston Texans rate 65/100 against Cincinnati Bengals at 29/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.023).
  • Passing: Houston Texans rate 55/100 against Cincinnati Bengals at 39/100 (Dropback EPA 0.071).
  • Offense: Houston Texans rate 45/100 against Cincinnati Bengals at 42/100 (EPA / Play 0.012).

What Could Flip It

  • Rushing: Cincinnati Bengals rate 84/100 against Houston Texans at 32/100 (Rush EPA 0.025).
  • Situational: Cincinnati Bengals rate 55/100 against Houston Texans at 44/100.
  • Pass Rush: Cincinnati Bengals rate 32/100 against Houston Texans at 26/100 (Pressure Rate 14.1%).
  • Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.

Model Analysis

Cincinnati Bengals visit Houston Texans in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Houston Texans the 69% side, with Cincinnati Bengals at 31%.

Where Houston Texans grade out ahead: Defense: Houston Texans rate 65/100 against Cincinnati Bengals at 29/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.023). Passing: Houston Texans rate 55/100 against Cincinnati Bengals at 39/100 (Dropback EPA 0.071). Offense: Houston Texans rate 45/100 against Cincinnati Bengals at 42/100 (EPA / Play 0.012).

Counter-edges for Cincinnati Bengals: Rushing: Cincinnati Bengals rate 84/100 against Houston Texans at 32/100 (Rush EPA 0.025). Situational: Cincinnati Bengals rate 55/100 against Houston Texans at 44/100. Pass Rush: Cincinnati Bengals rate 32/100 against Houston Texans at 26/100 (Pressure Rate 14.1%).

All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.

Forecast

The model projects Houston Texans to win this game 69% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.