Away
Detroit Lions
1-0
Home
Buffalo Bills
1-0
Model Win Probability
Detroit Lions · Away
42%
Buffalo Bills · Home
58%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| DET | Metric | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 0.058 | EPA / Play | 0.164 |
| 45.3% | Success Rate | 46.1% |
| 0.123 | Dropback EPA | 0.290 |
| -0.037 | Rush EPA | -0.035 |
| 10.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.6% |
| 38.8% | 3rd Down Conversion | 42.1% |
| 88.2% | Red Zone TD Rate | 62.3% |
| -0.016 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.009 |
| 15.6% | Pressure Rate | 18.2% |
Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Highmark Stadium
- Kickoff
- Thu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- a_turf
- Away rest
- 4 days
- Home rest
- 4 days
- Site
- Buffalo Bills home game
Player Impact
Jared Goff
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 26/39
- Pass yds
- 206
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 5.3
- Sacks
- 1
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 29
- Rush yds
- 156
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 87.9%
Sione Vaki
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 2
- Rush yds
- 7
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 6.1%
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 67
- YPR
- 6.7
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 35.9%
Jameson Williams
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 45
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 23.1%
Away · Detroit Lions
Jared Goff
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 26/39
- Pass yds
- 206
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 5.3
- Sacks
- 1
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 29
- Rush yds
- 156
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 87.9%
Sione Vaki
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 2
- Rush yds
- 7
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 6.1%
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 67
- YPR
- 6.7
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 35.9%
Jameson Williams
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 45
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 23.1%
Home · Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 20/29
- Pass yds
- 334
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 11.5
- Sacks
- 2
James Cook
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 13
- Rush yds
- 57
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 61.9%
Frank Gore Jr.
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 1
- Rush yds
- 3
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 4.8%
DJ Moore
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 100
- YPR
- 20
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 28.6%
Khalil Shakir
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 50
- YPR
- 12.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 21.4%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Detroit Lions
D.J. ReedCB
QUESTIONABLEFoot · Limited Participation in Practice
Christian MahoganyOL
OUTHip · Did Not Participate In Practice
Blake MillerOL
OUTKnee · Did Not Participate In Practice
Home · Buffalo Bills
Ty JohnsonRB
QUESTIONABLEHamstring · Limited Participation in Practice
Cole BishopS
QUESTIONABLEKnee · Limited Participation in Practice
T.J. SandersDL
QUESTIONABLEKnee · Limited Participation in Practice
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · Detroit Lions
Home · Buffalo Bills
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · BUF
passingBuffalo Bills ranks in the 100th percentile for passing against the 68th percentile opposite, a 32-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · DET
efficiencyDetroit Lions ranks in the 61th percentile for defense against the 42th percentile opposite, a 19-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing usage concentration · DET
rushingJahmyr Gibbs handled 87.9% of Detroit Lions carries in Week 1 (29 attempts, 156 yards).
Quarter scoring tendency · DET
scoringDetroit Lions produced 14 of 24 points in the third quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Passing: Buffalo Bills rate 100/100 against Detroit Lions at 68/100 (Dropback EPA 0.290).
- Pass Rush: Buffalo Bills rate 87/100 against Detroit Lions at 58/100 (Pressure Rate 18.2%).
- Offense: Buffalo Bills rate 97/100 against Detroit Lions at 71/100 (EPA / Play 0.164).
What Could Flip It
- Situational: Detroit Lions rate 65/100 against Buffalo Bills at 39/100.
- Defense: Detroit Lions rate 61/100 against Buffalo Bills at 42/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.016).
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
Detroit Lions visit Buffalo Bills in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Buffalo Bills the 58% side, with Detroit Lions at 42%.
Where Buffalo Bills grade out ahead: Passing: Buffalo Bills rate 100/100 against Detroit Lions at 68/100 (Dropback EPA 0.290). Pass Rush: Buffalo Bills rate 87/100 against Detroit Lions at 58/100 (Pressure Rate 18.2%). Offense: Buffalo Bills rate 97/100 against Detroit Lions at 71/100 (EPA / Play 0.164).
Counter-edges for Detroit Lions: Situational: Detroit Lions rate 65/100 against Buffalo Bills at 39/100. Defense: Detroit Lions rate 61/100 against Buffalo Bills at 42/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.016).
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Buffalo Bills to win this game 58% of the time. That is a moderate edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.