Away
Cleveland Browns
0-1
Home
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-1
Model Win Probability
Cleveland Browns · Away
33%
separation34%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Home
67%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| CLE | Metric | TB |
|---|---|---|
| -0.188 | EPA / Play | -0.062 |
| 37.6% | Success Rate | 43.8% |
| -0.244 | Dropback EPA | -0.061 |
| -0.097 | Rush EPA | -0.035 |
| 6.9% | Explosive Play Rate | 7.9% |
| 27.3% | 3rd Down Conversion | 44.0% |
| 46.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 68.3% |
| 0.034 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.009 |
| 16.7% | Pressure Rate | 14.2% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Raymond James Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers home game
Player Impact
Deshaun Watson
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 16/22
- Pass yds
- 205
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 9.3
- Sacks
- 5
Quinshon Judkins
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 12
- Rush yds
- 33
- YPC
- 2.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 54.5%
Raheim Sanders
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 1
- Rush yds
- 1
- YPC
- 1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 4.5%
KC Concepcion
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 43
- YPR
- 10.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.7%
Jerry Jeudy
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 2
- Rec yds
- 26
- YPR
- 13
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18.2%
Away · Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 16/22
- Pass yds
- 205
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 9.3
- Sacks
- 5
Quinshon Judkins
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 12
- Rush yds
- 33
- YPC
- 2.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 54.5%
Raheim Sanders
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 1
- Rush yds
- 1
- YPC
- 1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 4.5%
KC Concepcion
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 43
- YPR
- 10.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.7%
Jerry Jeudy
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 2
- Rec yds
- 26
- YPR
- 13
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18.2%
Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 23/28
- Pass yds
- 216
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.7
- Sacks
- 4
Bucky Irving
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 8
- Rush yds
- 45
- YPC
- 5.6
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 40%
Kenny Gainwell
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 5
- Rush yds
- 15
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 25%
Emeka Egbuka
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 63
- YPR
- 12.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.2%
Cade Otton
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 26
- YPR
- 8.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18.5%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · Cleveland Browns
Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Danielle Hunter out, Will Anderson Jr. questionable for Texans-Browns
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 3h ago · CLE / HOU
- NFL injury tracker Week 10: Latest news, fantasy implications as Patriots' A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) and Chiefs' Kenneth Walker III (groin) questionable; Deshaun Watson to start for Browns
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4d ago · CLE / KC / NE
- Cleveland Browns news: Breaking the Three Rivers Jinx
Yahoo Sports NFL · 16d ago · CLE
- Cleveland Browns WR up for a league honor after big game in Week 7
Yahoo Sports NFL · 17d ago · CLE
- Who were the Titans’ 5 best players vs. Browns in Week 7?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 17d ago · CLE / TEN
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · TB
passingTampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 26th percentile for passing against the 0th percentile opposite, a 26-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing edge · TB
rushingTampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 71th percentile for rushing against the 19th percentile opposite, a 52-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · TB
efficiencyTampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 45th percentile for defense against the 32th percentile opposite, a 13-point separation in the blended team profile.
Quarter scoring tendency · CLE
scoringCleveland Browns produced 7 of 10 points in the fourth quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Rushing: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 71/100 against Cleveland Browns at 19/100 (Rush EPA -0.035).
- Situational: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 50/100 against Cleveland Browns at 0/100.
- Offense: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 32/100 against Cleveland Browns at 0/100 (EPA / Play -0.062).
What Could Flip It
- Pass Rush: Cleveland Browns rate 71/100 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 39/100 (Pressure Rate 16.7%).
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
Cleveland Browns visit Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers the 67% side, with Cleveland Browns at 33%.
Where Tampa Bay Buccaneers grade out ahead: Rushing: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 71/100 against Cleveland Browns at 19/100 (Rush EPA -0.035). Situational: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 50/100 against Cleveland Browns at 0/100. Offense: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 32/100 against Cleveland Browns at 0/100 (EPA / Play -0.062).
Counter-edges for Cleveland Browns: Pass Rush: Cleveland Browns rate 71/100 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 39/100 (Pressure Rate 16.7%).
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win this game 67% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics on this page are matchup context, not inputs to this older probability. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.