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Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETCLE @ TB
Cleveland Browns

Away

Cleveland Browns

0-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-1

Model Win Probability

Cleveland Browns · Away

33%

Edge34%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Home

67%

Team Efficiency Comparison

0
32
Offense
0
26
Passing
19
71
Rushing
32
45
Defense
71
39
Pass Rush
0
50
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

CLEMetricTB
-0.188EPA / Play-0.062
37.6%Success Rate43.8%
-0.244Dropback EPA-0.061
-0.097Rush EPA-0.035
6.9%Explosive Play Rate7.9%
27.3%3rd Down Conversion44.0%
46.7%Red Zone TD Rate68.3%
0.034Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.009
16.7%Pressure Rate14.2%

Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Tampa Bay Buccaneers home game

Player Impact

Deshaun Watson

QB

2026 Week 1

CMP/ATT
16/22
Pass yds
205
Pass TD
1
INT
1
Y/A
9.3
Sacks
5

Quinshon Judkins

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
12
Rush yds
33
YPC
2.8
Rush TD
0
Targets
2
Rec
2
Rush share
54.5%

Raheim Sanders

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
1
Rush yds
1
YPC
1
Rush TD
0
Targets
3
Rec
3
Rush share
4.5%

KC Concepcion

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
5
Rec
4
Rec yds
43
YPR
10.8
Rec TD
0
Target share
22.7%

Jerry Jeudy

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
4
Rec
2
Rec yds
26
YPR
13
Rec TD
0
Target share
18.2%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 1 game

Away · Cleveland Browns

Q1
0
Q2
0
Q3
3
Q4
7

Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Q1
3
Q2
7
Q3
10
Q4
7

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing edge · TB

passing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 26th percentile for passing against the 0th percentile opposite, a 26-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing edge · TB

rushing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 71th percentile for rushing against the 19th percentile opposite, a 52-point separation in the blended team profile.

Defense edge · TB

efficiency

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 45th percentile for defense against the 32th percentile opposite, a 13-point separation in the blended team profile.

Quarter scoring tendency · CLE

scoring

Cleveland Browns produced 7 of 10 points in the fourth quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Rushing: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 71/100 against Cleveland Browns at 19/100 (Rush EPA -0.035).
  • Situational: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 50/100 against Cleveland Browns at 0/100.
  • Offense: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 32/100 against Cleveland Browns at 0/100 (EPA / Play -0.062).

What Could Flip It

  • Pass Rush: Cleveland Browns rate 71/100 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 39/100 (Pressure Rate 16.7%).
  • Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.

Model Analysis

Cleveland Browns visit Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers the 67% side, with Cleveland Browns at 33%.

Where Tampa Bay Buccaneers grade out ahead: Rushing: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 71/100 against Cleveland Browns at 19/100 (Rush EPA -0.035). Situational: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 50/100 against Cleveland Browns at 0/100. Offense: Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 32/100 against Cleveland Browns at 0/100 (EPA / Play -0.062).

Counter-edges for Cleveland Browns: Pass Rush: Cleveland Browns rate 71/100 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 39/100 (Pressure Rate 16.7%).

All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.

Forecast

The model projects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win this game 67% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.