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Green Bay Packers at New York Jets

Compare Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETGB @ NYJ
Green Bay Packers

Away

Green Bay Packers

0-1

New York Jets

Home

New York Jets

1-0

Model Win Probability

Green Bay Packers · Away

66%

Model
separation32%

New York Jets · Home

34%

Team Efficiency Comparison

58
35
Offense
77
42
Passing
3
52
Rushing
35
19
Defense
65
10
Pass Rush
38
16
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

GBMetricNYJ
0.028EPA / Play-0.038
45.1%Success Rate43.5%
0.161Dropback EPA0.006
-0.173Rush EPA-0.063
11.5%Explosive Play Rate8.1%
41.5%3rd Down Conversion29.9%
62.8%Red Zone TD Rate69.0%
0.018Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.067
16.3%Pressure Rate11.6%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
New York Jets home game

Player Impact

Jordan Love

QB

2026 Week 1

CMP/ATT
21/42
Pass yds
387
Pass TD
2
INT
1
Y/A
9.2
Sacks
4

MarShawn Lloyd

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
13
Rush yds
37
YPC
2.8
Rush TD
0
Targets
1
Rec
0
Rush share
61.9%

Chris Brooks

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
7
Rush yds
29
YPC
4.1
Rush TD
0
Targets
1
Rec
0
Rush share
33.3%

Matthew Golden

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
12
Rec
6
Rec yds
95
YPR
15.8
Rec TD
0
Target share
30%

Christian Watson

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
8
Rec
6
Rec yds
147
YPR
24.5
Rec TD
2
Target share
20%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 1 game

Away · Green Bay Packers

Q1
9
Q2
10
Q3
3
Q4
0

Home · New York Jets

Q1
7
Q2
3
Q3
10
Q4
3

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing edge · GB

passing

Green Bay Packers ranks in the 77th percentile for passing against the 42th percentile opposite, a 35-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing edge · NYJ

rushing

New York Jets ranks in the 52th percentile for rushing against the 3th percentile opposite, a 49-point separation in the blended team profile.

Defense edge · GB

efficiency

Green Bay Packers ranks in the 35th percentile for defense against the 19th percentile opposite, a 16-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing usage concentration · GB

rushing

MarShawn Lloyd handled 61.9% of Green Bay Packers carries in Week 1 (13 attempts, 37 yards).

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Pass Rush: Green Bay Packers rate 65/100 against New York Jets at 10/100 (Pressure Rate 16.3%).
  • Passing: Green Bay Packers rate 77/100 against New York Jets at 42/100 (Dropback EPA 0.161).
  • Offense: Green Bay Packers rate 58/100 against New York Jets at 35/100 (EPA / Play 0.028).

What Could Flip It

  • Rushing: New York Jets rate 52/100 against Green Bay Packers at 3/100 (Rush EPA -0.063).
  • Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.

Model Analysis

Green Bay Packers visit New York Jets in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Green Bay Packers the 66% side, with New York Jets at 34%.

Where Green Bay Packers grade out ahead: Pass Rush: Green Bay Packers rate 65/100 against New York Jets at 10/100 (Pressure Rate 16.3%). Passing: Green Bay Packers rate 77/100 against New York Jets at 42/100 (Dropback EPA 0.161). Offense: Green Bay Packers rate 58/100 against New York Jets at 35/100 (EPA / Play 0.028).

Counter-edges for New York Jets: Rushing: New York Jets rate 52/100 against Green Bay Packers at 3/100 (Rush EPA -0.063).

All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.

Forecast

The model projects Green Bay Packers to win this game 66% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics on this page are matchup context, not inputs to this older probability. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.