Away
Green Bay Packers
0-1
Home
New York Jets
1-0
Model Win Probability
Green Bay Packers · Away
66%
New York Jets · Home
34%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| GB | Metric | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.028 | EPA / Play | -0.038 |
| 45.1% | Success Rate | 43.5% |
| 0.161 | Dropback EPA | 0.006 |
| -0.173 | Rush EPA | -0.063 |
| 11.5% | Explosive Play Rate | 8.1% |
| 41.5% | 3rd Down Conversion | 29.9% |
| 62.8% | Red Zone TD Rate | 69.0% |
| 0.018 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.067 |
| 16.3% | Pressure Rate | 11.6% |
Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- MetLife Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- New York Jets home game
Player Impact
Jordan Love
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 21/42
- Pass yds
- 387
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 9.2
- Sacks
- 4
MarShawn Lloyd
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 13
- Rush yds
- 37
- YPC
- 2.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 61.9%
Chris Brooks
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 7
- Rush yds
- 29
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 33.3%
Matthew Golden
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 95
- YPR
- 15.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 30%
Christian Watson
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 147
- YPR
- 24.5
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 20%
Away · Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 21/42
- Pass yds
- 387
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 9.2
- Sacks
- 4
MarShawn Lloyd
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 13
- Rush yds
- 37
- YPC
- 2.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 61.9%
Chris Brooks
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 7
- Rush yds
- 29
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 33.3%
Matthew Golden
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 95
- YPR
- 15.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 30%
Christian Watson
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 147
- YPR
- 24.5
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 20%
Home · New York Jets
Geno Smith
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 19/24
- Pass yds
- 215
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 9
- Sacks
- 0
Breece Hall
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 22
- Rush yds
- 102
- YPC
- 4.6
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 56.4%
Braelon Allen
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yds
- 40
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 25.6%
Garrett Wilson
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 79
- YPR
- 13.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 30.4%
Adonai Mitchell
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 60
- YPR
- 20
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 13%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · Green Bay Packers
Home · New York Jets
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Judge declines to sign order sealing Josh Jacobs video, on procedural grounds
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 3h ago · GB
- Cam Ward remains confident that he's "a very good quarterback"
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 4h ago · NYJ / TEN
- Jets add Will McDonald to their injury report
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 4h ago · NYJ
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · GB
passingGreen Bay Packers ranks in the 77th percentile for passing against the 42th percentile opposite, a 35-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing edge · NYJ
rushingNew York Jets ranks in the 52th percentile for rushing against the 3th percentile opposite, a 49-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · GB
efficiencyGreen Bay Packers ranks in the 35th percentile for defense against the 19th percentile opposite, a 16-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing usage concentration · GB
rushingMarShawn Lloyd handled 61.9% of Green Bay Packers carries in Week 1 (13 attempts, 37 yards).
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Pass Rush: Green Bay Packers rate 65/100 against New York Jets at 10/100 (Pressure Rate 16.3%).
- Passing: Green Bay Packers rate 77/100 against New York Jets at 42/100 (Dropback EPA 0.161).
- Offense: Green Bay Packers rate 58/100 against New York Jets at 35/100 (EPA / Play 0.028).
What Could Flip It
- Rushing: New York Jets rate 52/100 against Green Bay Packers at 3/100 (Rush EPA -0.063).
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
Green Bay Packers visit New York Jets in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Green Bay Packers the 66% side, with New York Jets at 34%.
Where Green Bay Packers grade out ahead: Pass Rush: Green Bay Packers rate 65/100 against New York Jets at 10/100 (Pressure Rate 16.3%). Passing: Green Bay Packers rate 77/100 against New York Jets at 42/100 (Dropback EPA 0.161). Offense: Green Bay Packers rate 58/100 against New York Jets at 35/100 (EPA / Play 0.028).
Counter-edges for New York Jets: Rushing: New York Jets rate 52/100 against Green Bay Packers at 3/100 (Rush EPA -0.063).
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Green Bay Packers to win this game 66% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.