Away
Indianapolis Colts
0-1
Home
Kansas City Chiefs
1-0
Model Win Probability
Indianapolis Colts · Away
33%
Kansas City Chiefs · Home
67%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| IND | Metric | KC |
|---|---|---|
| -0.022 | EPA / Play | 0.074 |
| 44.9% | Success Rate | 43.8% |
| -0.079 | Dropback EPA | 0.061 |
| 0.081 | Rush EPA | 0.062 |
| 9.8% | Explosive Play Rate | 8.1% |
| 39.1% | 3rd Down Conversion | 43.4% |
| 96.5% | Red Zone TD Rate | 69.6% |
| 0.099 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.117 |
| 12.7% | Pressure Rate | 18.4% |
Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 6 days
- Site
- Kansas City Chiefs home game
Player Impact
Daniel Jones
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 19/31
- Pass yds
- 166
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 5.4
- Sacks
- 2
Jonathan Taylor
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 19
- Rush yds
- 98
- YPC
- 5.2
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 95%
Keenan Allen
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 32
- YPR
- 5.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20.7%
Alec Pierce
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 61
- YPR
- 15.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20.7%
Away · Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 19/31
- Pass yds
- 166
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 5.4
- Sacks
- 2
Jonathan Taylor
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 19
- Rush yds
- 98
- YPC
- 5.2
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 95%
Keenan Allen
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 32
- YPR
- 5.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20.7%
Alec Pierce
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 61
- YPR
- 15.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20.7%
Home · Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 15/27
- Pass yds
- 184
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 6.8
- Sacks
- 2
Kenneth Walker III
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 23
- Rush yds
- 173
- YPC
- 7.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 60.5%
Emmett Johnson
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 8
- Rush yds
- 24
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 21.1%
Xavier Worthy
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 18
- YPR
- 6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 24%
Travis Kelce
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 71
- YPR
- 23.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · Indianapolis Colts
Home · Kansas City Chiefs
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Nix, Broncos 'not freaking out' after bad loss to Chiefs
ESPN NFL · just now · DEN / JAX / KC
- Chiefs-Colts: 5 things to watch in the Week 2 matchup
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · IND / KC
- Under center 42.5% of the time? The NFL is abandoning the shotgun formation -- and it's working
ESPN NFL · 10h ago · BAL / KC / LV / NYG / PHI / WAS
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · KC
passingKansas City Chiefs ranks in the 48th percentile for passing against the 16th percentile opposite, a 32-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · KC
efficiencyKansas City Chiefs ranks in the 94th percentile for defense against the 16th percentile opposite, a 78-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing usage concentration · IND
rushingJonathan Taylor handled 95% of Indianapolis Colts carries in Week 1 (19 attempts, 98 yards).
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Defense: Kansas City Chiefs rate 94/100 against Indianapolis Colts at 16/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.117).
- Pass Rush: Kansas City Chiefs rate 94/100 against Indianapolis Colts at 16/100 (Pressure Rate 18.4%).
- Offense: Kansas City Chiefs rate 74/100 against Indianapolis Colts at 39/100 (EPA / Play 0.074).
What Could Flip It
- Situational: Indianapolis Colts rate 71/100 against Kansas City Chiefs at 53/100.
- Rushing: Indianapolis Colts rate 94/100 against Kansas City Chiefs at 90/100 (Rush EPA 0.081).
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
Indianapolis Colts visit Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Kansas City Chiefs the 67% side, with Indianapolis Colts at 33%.
Where Kansas City Chiefs grade out ahead: Defense: Kansas City Chiefs rate 94/100 against Indianapolis Colts at 16/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.117). Pass Rush: Kansas City Chiefs rate 94/100 against Indianapolis Colts at 16/100 (Pressure Rate 18.4%). Offense: Kansas City Chiefs rate 74/100 against Indianapolis Colts at 39/100 (EPA / Play 0.074).
Counter-edges for Indianapolis Colts: Situational: Indianapolis Colts rate 71/100 against Kansas City Chiefs at 53/100. Rushing: Indianapolis Colts rate 94/100 against Kansas City Chiefs at 90/100 (Rush EPA 0.081).
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Kansas City Chiefs to win this game 67% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.