Away
Jacksonville Jaguars
1-0
Home
Denver Broncos
0-1
Model Win Probability
Jacksonville Jaguars · Away
35%
Denver Broncos · Home
65%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| JAX | Metric | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 0.123 | EPA / Play | -0.068 |
| 49.2% | Success Rate | 42.0% |
| 0.278 | Dropback EPA | -0.055 |
| -0.037 | Rush EPA | -0.065 |
| 11.2% | Explosive Play Rate | 6.5% |
| 44.9% | 3rd Down Conversion | 34.0% |
| 87.8% | Red Zone TD Rate | 72.3% |
| -0.129 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.012 |
| 18.3% | Pressure Rate | 19.8% |
Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Empower Field at Mile High
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 6 days
- Site
- Denver Broncos home game
Player Impact
Trevor Lawrence
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 18/23
- Pass yds
- 245
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 10.7
- Sacks
- 1
Bhayshul Tuten
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 66
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 46.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 6
- Rush yds
- 23
- YPC
- 3.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 18.8%
Parker Washington
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 83
- YPR
- 16.6
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 28.6%
Brenton Strange
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 2
- Rec yds
- 23
- YPR
- 11.5
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 14.3%
Away · Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 18/23
- Pass yds
- 245
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 10.7
- Sacks
- 1
Bhayshul Tuten
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 66
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 46.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 6
- Rush yds
- 23
- YPC
- 3.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 18.8%
Parker Washington
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 83
- YPR
- 16.6
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 28.6%
Brenton Strange
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 2
- Rec yds
- 23
- YPR
- 11.5
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 14.3%
Home · Denver Broncos
Bo Nix
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 17/28
- Pass yds
- 131
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 4.7
- Sacks
- 4
J.K. Dobbins
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 8
- Rush yds
- 36
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 53.3%
RJ Harvey
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 3
- Rush yds
- 18
- YPC
- 6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 20%
Pat Bryant
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 42
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.2%
Evan Engram
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 43
- YPR
- 10.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 18.5%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · Jacksonville Jaguars
Home · Denver Broncos
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Nix, Broncos 'not freaking out' after bad loss to Chiefs
ESPN NFL · just now · DEN / JAX / KC
- Denver Broncos: An easy to solution to ‘rage baiting’ is to play better
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · DEN
- Broncos RJ Harvey practices on Thursday; Marvin Mims did not
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · DEN
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · JAX
passingJacksonville Jaguars ranks in the 97th percentile for passing against the 32th percentile opposite, a 65-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing edge · JAX
rushingJacksonville Jaguars ranks in the 61th percentile for rushing against the 48th percentile opposite, a 13-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · JAX
efficiencyJacksonville Jaguars ranks in the 100th percentile for defense against the 52th percentile opposite, a 48-point separation in the blended team profile.
Quarter scoring tendency · JAX
scoringJacksonville Jaguars produced 14 of 34 points in the first quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Pass Rush: Denver Broncos rate 97/100 against Jacksonville Jaguars at 90/100 (Pressure Rate 19.8%).
What Could Flip It
- Passing: Jacksonville Jaguars rate 97/100 against Denver Broncos at 32/100 (Dropback EPA 0.278).
- Offense: Jacksonville Jaguars rate 90/100 against Denver Broncos at 29/100 (EPA / Play 0.123).
- Situational: Jacksonville Jaguars rate 87/100 against Denver Broncos at 36/100.
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars visit Denver Broncos in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Denver Broncos the 65% side, with Jacksonville Jaguars at 35%.
Where Denver Broncos grade out ahead: Pass Rush: Denver Broncos rate 97/100 against Jacksonville Jaguars at 90/100 (Pressure Rate 19.8%).
Counter-edges for Jacksonville Jaguars: Passing: Jacksonville Jaguars rate 97/100 against Denver Broncos at 32/100 (Dropback EPA 0.278). Offense: Jacksonville Jaguars rate 90/100 against Denver Broncos at 29/100 (EPA / Play 0.123). Situational: Jacksonville Jaguars rate 87/100 against Denver Broncos at 36/100.
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Denver Broncos to win this game 65% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.