Away
Las Vegas Raiders
1-0
Home
Los Angeles Chargers
0-1
Model Win Probability
Las Vegas Raiders · Away
24%
separation52%
Los Angeles Chargers · Home
76%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| LV | Metric | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| -0.162 | EPA / Play | -0.090 |
| 39.0% | Success Rate | 42.0% |
| -0.113 | Dropback EPA | -0.056 |
| -0.237 | Rush EPA | -0.154 |
| 7.2% | Explosive Play Rate | 7.1% |
| 36.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 39.7% |
| 65.3% | Red Zone TD Rate | 72.5% |
| -0.054 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.015 |
| 17.2% | Pressure Rate | 14.4% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- SoFi Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- matrixturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Los Angeles Chargers home game
Player Impact
Kirk Cousins
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 21/30
- Pass yds
- 160
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 5.3
- Sacks
- 0
Ashton Jeanty
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 23
- Rush yds
- 102
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 6
- Rush share
- 62.2%
Mike Washington Jr.
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 7
- Rush yds
- 41
- YPC
- 5.9
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 18.9%
Michael Mayer
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 32
- YPR
- 5.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 24.1%
Jalen Nailor
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 27
- YPR
- 9
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.2%
Away · Las Vegas Raiders
Kirk Cousins
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 21/30
- Pass yds
- 160
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 5.3
- Sacks
- 0
Ashton Jeanty
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 23
- Rush yds
- 102
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 6
- Rush share
- 62.2%
Mike Washington Jr.
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 7
- Rush yds
- 41
- YPC
- 5.9
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 18.9%
Michael Mayer
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 32
- YPR
- 5.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 24.1%
Jalen Nailor
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 27
- YPR
- 9
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.2%
Home · Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 17/27
- Pass yds
- 209
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.7
- Sacks
- 3
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 12
- Rush yds
- 43
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 57.1%
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 4
- Rush yds
- 9
- YPC
- 2.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 19%
Ladd McConkey
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 82
- YPR
- 16.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 25.9%
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 2
- Rec yds
- 17
- YPR
- 8.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.2%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · Las Vegas Raiders
Home · Los Angeles Chargers
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- It's Mendoza time: Graziano on the Raiders' decision to sit the rookie QB ... until now
ESPN NFL · just now · LV
- Chargers Injury Report: Ladd McConkey, Brenen Thompson DNP for 2nd consecutive practice
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · BAL / LAC
- Las Vegas Raiders-Seattle Seahawks FEED Topic: Monitoring Fernando Mendoza’s 1st start
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · LV / SEA
- Raiders Week 10: Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba a supreme challenge
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · LV / SEA
- Seahawks-Raiders injury designations: Uchenna Nwosu returns, as well as Rashid Shaheed
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · LV / SEA
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · LAC
passingLos Angeles Chargers ranks in the 29th percentile for passing against the 10th percentile opposite, a 19-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing edge · LAC
rushingLos Angeles Chargers ranks in the 10th percentile for rushing against the 0th percentile opposite, a 10-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · LV
efficiencyLas Vegas Raiders ranks in the 77th percentile for defense against the 58th percentile opposite, a 19-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing usage concentration · LV
rushingAshton Jeanty handled 62.2% of Las Vegas Raiders carries in Week 1 (23 attempts, 102 yards).
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Situational: Los Angeles Chargers rate 54/100 against Las Vegas Raiders at 23/100.
- Passing: Los Angeles Chargers rate 29/100 against Las Vegas Raiders at 10/100 (Dropback EPA -0.056).
- Offense: Los Angeles Chargers rate 13/100 against Las Vegas Raiders at 3/100 (EPA / Play -0.090).
What Could Flip It
- Pass Rush: Las Vegas Raiders rate 77/100 against Los Angeles Chargers at 45/100 (Pressure Rate 17.2%).
- Defense: Las Vegas Raiders rate 77/100 against Los Angeles Chargers at 58/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.054).
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
Las Vegas Raiders visit Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Los Angeles Chargers the 76% side, with Las Vegas Raiders at 24%.
Where Los Angeles Chargers grade out ahead: Situational: Los Angeles Chargers rate 54/100 against Las Vegas Raiders at 23/100. Passing: Los Angeles Chargers rate 29/100 against Las Vegas Raiders at 10/100 (Dropback EPA -0.056). Offense: Los Angeles Chargers rate 13/100 against Las Vegas Raiders at 3/100 (EPA / Play -0.090).
Counter-edges for Las Vegas Raiders: Pass Rush: Las Vegas Raiders rate 77/100 against Los Angeles Chargers at 45/100 (Pressure Rate 17.2%). Defense: Las Vegas Raiders rate 77/100 against Los Angeles Chargers at 58/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.054).
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Los Angeles Chargers to win this game 76% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics on this page are matchup context, not inputs to this older probability. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.