Away
Miami Dolphins
0-1
Home
San Francisco 49ers
1-0
Model Win Probability
Miami Dolphins · Away
32%
separation36%
San Francisco 49ers · Home
68%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| MIA | Metric | SF |
|---|---|---|
| -0.083 | EPA / Play | 0.115 |
| 39.6% | Success Rate | 50.7% |
| -0.068 | Dropback EPA | 0.178 |
| -0.116 | Rush EPA | 0.026 |
| 10.9% | Explosive Play Rate | 8.3% |
| 30.4% | 3rd Down Conversion | 53.0% |
| 71.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 83.0% |
| 0.050 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.030 |
| 11.0% | Pressure Rate | 14.8% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Levi's Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 10 days
- Site
- San Francisco 49ers home game
Player Impact
Malik Willis
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 15/27
- Pass yds
- 220
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 8.1
- Sacks
- 5
De'Von Achane
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 36
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 61.1%
Jaylen Wright
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 5.6%
Malik Washington
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 53
- YPR
- 17.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 29.6%
Caleb Douglas
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 94
- YPR
- 18.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 25.9%
Away · Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 15/27
- Pass yds
- 220
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 8.1
- Sacks
- 5
De'Von Achane
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 36
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 61.1%
Jaylen Wright
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 5.6%
Malik Washington
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 53
- YPR
- 17.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 29.6%
Caleb Douglas
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 94
- YPR
- 18.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 25.9%
Home · San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 25/34
- Pass yds
- 205
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 6
- Sacks
- 0
Kaelon Black
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 14
- Rush yds
- 65
- YPC
- 4.6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 46.7%
Christian McCaffrey
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yds
- 68
- YPC
- 6.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 33.3%
Mike Evans
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 49
- YPR
- 8.2
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 20.6%
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 48
- YPR
- 8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 20.6%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · Miami Dolphins
Home · San Francisco 49ers
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- 49ers-Cowboys preview: Christian McCaffrey and the Niners should run wild
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · DAL / SF
- Cowboys aggressiveness on offense must be turned up vs. 49ers
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · DAL / SF
- 49ers OT Williams, LB Greenlaw questionable, WR Evans out vs. Cowboys
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · DAL / SF
- Cowboys injuries: 49ers game status for George Pickens, Joey Porter Jr.
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · DAL / SF
- Deebo Samuel has no injury designation, but four CBs are questionable for 49ers
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 2h ago · SF
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · SF
passingSan Francisco 49ers ranks in the 81th percentile for passing against the 23th percentile opposite, a 58-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing edge · SF
rushingSan Francisco 49ers ranks in the 87th percentile for rushing against the 16th percentile opposite, a 71-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · SF
efficiencySan Francisco 49ers ranks in the 68th percentile for defense against the 26th percentile opposite, a 42-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing usage concentration · MIA
rushingDe'Von Achane handled 61.1% of Miami Dolphins carries in Week 1 (11 attempts, 36 yards).
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Rushing: San Francisco 49ers rate 87/100 against Miami Dolphins at 16/100 (Rush EPA 0.026).
- Offense: San Francisco 49ers rate 81/100 against Miami Dolphins at 19/100 (EPA / Play 0.115).
- Situational: San Francisco 49ers rate 89/100 against Miami Dolphins at 29/100.
What Could Flip It
- Miami Dolphins do not lead any measured category, so the model edge rests on a small two-week sample.
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
Miami Dolphins visit San Francisco 49ers in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes San Francisco 49ers the 68% side, with Miami Dolphins at 32%.
Where San Francisco 49ers grade out ahead: Rushing: San Francisco 49ers rate 87/100 against Miami Dolphins at 16/100 (Rush EPA 0.026). Offense: San Francisco 49ers rate 81/100 against Miami Dolphins at 19/100 (EPA / Play 0.115). Situational: San Francisco 49ers rate 89/100 against Miami Dolphins at 29/100.
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects San Francisco 49ers to win this game 68% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics on this page are matchup context, not inputs to this older probability. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.