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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETMIN @ CHI
Minnesota Vikings

Away

Minnesota Vikings

1-0

Chicago Bears

Home

Chicago Bears

1-0

Model Win Probability

Minnesota Vikings · Away

52%

Edge4%

Chicago Bears · Home

48%

Team Efficiency Comparison

16
100
Offense
13
94
Passing
35
100
Rushing
97
23
Defense
100
19
Pass Rush
60
91
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

MINMetricCHI
-0.087EPA / Play0.178
40.5%Success Rate48.3%
-0.086Dropback EPA0.243
-0.075Rush EPA0.096
7.2%Explosive Play Rate11.2%
39.7%3rd Down Conversion51.2%
75.6%Red Zone TD Rate87.3%
-0.122Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.067
23.0%Pressure Rate13.0%

Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Soldier Field
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Chicago Bears home game

Player Impact

Carson Wentz

QB

2026 Week 1

CMP/ATT
12/19
Pass yds
133
Pass TD
3
INT
0
Y/A
7
Sacks
3

Jordan Mason

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
15
Rush yds
59
YPC
3.9
Rush TD
1
Targets
0
Rec
0
Rush share
44.1%

Aaron Jones

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
12
Rush yds
40
YPC
3.3
Rush TD
1
Targets
1
Rec
0
Rush share
35.3%

Justin Jefferson

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
9
Rec
8
Rec yds
92
YPR
11.5
Rec TD
2
Target share
39.1%

T.J. Hockenson

TE

2026 Week 1

Targets
5
Rec
4
Rec yds
36
YPR
9
Rec TD
1
Target share
21.7%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 1 game

Away · Minnesota Vikings

Q1
3
Q2
7
Q3
7
Q4
22

Home · Chicago Bears

Q1
14
Q2
17
Q3
14
Q4
14

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing edge · CHI

passing

Chicago Bears ranks in the 94th percentile for passing against the 13th percentile opposite, a 81-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing edge · CHI

rushing

Chicago Bears ranks in the 100th percentile for rushing against the 35th percentile opposite, a 65-point separation in the blended team profile.

Defense edge · MIN

efficiency

Minnesota Vikings ranks in the 97th percentile for defense against the 23th percentile opposite, a 74-point separation in the blended team profile.

Quarter scoring tendency · MIN

scoring

Minnesota Vikings produced 22 of 39 points in the fourth quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Pass Rush: Minnesota Vikings rate 100/100 against Chicago Bears at 19/100 (Pressure Rate 23.0%).
  • Defense: Minnesota Vikings rate 97/100 against Chicago Bears at 23/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.122).

What Could Flip It

  • Offense: Chicago Bears rate 100/100 against Minnesota Vikings at 16/100 (EPA / Play 0.178).
  • Passing: Chicago Bears rate 94/100 against Minnesota Vikings at 13/100 (Dropback EPA 0.243).
  • Rushing: Chicago Bears rate 100/100 against Minnesota Vikings at 35/100 (Rush EPA 0.096).
  • Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.

Model Analysis

Minnesota Vikings visit Chicago Bears in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Minnesota Vikings the 52% side, with Chicago Bears at 48%.

Where Minnesota Vikings grade out ahead: Pass Rush: Minnesota Vikings rate 100/100 against Chicago Bears at 19/100 (Pressure Rate 23.0%). Defense: Minnesota Vikings rate 97/100 against Chicago Bears at 23/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.122).

Counter-edges for Chicago Bears: Offense: Chicago Bears rate 100/100 against Minnesota Vikings at 16/100 (EPA / Play 0.178). Passing: Chicago Bears rate 94/100 against Minnesota Vikings at 13/100 (Dropback EPA 0.243). Rushing: Chicago Bears rate 100/100 against Minnesota Vikings at 35/100 (Rush EPA 0.096).

All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.

Forecast

The model projects Minnesota Vikings to win this game 52% of the time. That is a slim edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.