Away
New Orleans Saints
0-1
Home
Baltimore Ravens
1-0
Model Win Probability
New Orleans Saints · Away
23%
Baltimore Ravens · Home
77%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NO | Metric | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| -0.071 | EPA / Play | 0.120 |
| 42.0% | Success Rate | 46.2% |
| -0.040 | Dropback EPA | 0.150 |
| -0.128 | Rush EPA | 0.094 |
| 6.8% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.0% |
| 41.9% | 3rd Down Conversion | 40.2% |
| 70.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 75.0% |
| -0.041 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.055 |
| 16.0% | Pressure Rate | 17.8% |
Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- M&T Bank Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Baltimore Ravens home game
Player Impact
Tyler Shough
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 35/56
- Pass yds
- 410
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 5
Travis Etienne
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 46
- YPC
- 5.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 36%
Kendre Miller
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 30
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 36%
Chris Olave
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 182
- YPR
- 18.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 25%
Devaughn Vele
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 69
- YPR
- 9.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.3%
Away · New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 35/56
- Pass yds
- 410
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 5
Travis Etienne
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 46
- YPC
- 5.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 36%
Kendre Miller
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 30
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 36%
Chris Olave
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 182
- YPR
- 18.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 25%
Devaughn Vele
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 69
- YPR
- 9.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.3%
Home · Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 17/25
- Pass yds
- 324
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 13
- Sacks
- 2
Derrick Henry
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 24
- Rush yds
- 144
- YPC
- 6
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 64.9%
Justice Hill
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 6
- Rush yds
- 18
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 16.2%
Mark Andrews
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 49
- YPR
- 12.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 25%
Zay Flowers
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 150
- YPR
- 30
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 25%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · New Orleans Saints
Home · Baltimore Ravens
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Alvin Kamara says he's going to play on Sunday
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · NO
- Alvin Kamara says he's going to play on Sunday
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 2h ago · NO
- Saints Sign Long Snapper Scott Daly to Practice Squad
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · NO
- Ravens worked out Brandin Cooks on Thursday
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 4h ago · BAL
- Ravens worked out Brandin Cooks on Thursday
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · BAL
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · BAL
passingBaltimore Ravens ranks in the 71th percentile for passing against the 35th percentile opposite, a 36-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing edge · BAL
rushingBaltimore Ravens ranks in the 97th percentile for rushing against the 13th percentile opposite, a 84-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing usage concentration · BAL
rushingDerrick Henry handled 64.9% of Baltimore Ravens carries in Week 1 (24 attempts, 144 yards).
Quarter scoring tendency · NO
scoringNew Orleans Saints produced 14 of 24 points in the third quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Rushing: Baltimore Ravens rate 97/100 against New Orleans Saints at 13/100 (Rush EPA 0.094).
- Offense: Baltimore Ravens rate 87/100 against New Orleans Saints at 26/100 (EPA / Play 0.120).
- Passing: Baltimore Ravens rate 71/100 against New Orleans Saints at 35/100 (Dropback EPA 0.150).
What Could Flip It
- New Orleans Saints do not lead any measured category, so the model edge rests on a small two-week sample.
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
New Orleans Saints visit Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Baltimore Ravens the 77% side, with New Orleans Saints at 23%.
Where Baltimore Ravens grade out ahead: Rushing: Baltimore Ravens rate 97/100 against New Orleans Saints at 13/100 (Rush EPA 0.094). Offense: Baltimore Ravens rate 87/100 against New Orleans Saints at 26/100 (EPA / Play 0.120). Passing: Baltimore Ravens rate 71/100 against New Orleans Saints at 35/100 (Dropback EPA 0.150).
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Baltimore Ravens to win this game 77% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.