Away
New York Giants
1-0
Home
Los Angeles Rams
0-1
Model Win Probability
New York Giants · Away
20%
Los Angeles Rams · Home
80%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NYG | Metric | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 0.119 | EPA / Play | 0.022 |
| 47.5% | Success Rate | 49.1% |
| 0.229 | Dropback EPA | 0.051 |
| -0.000 | Rush EPA | -0.029 |
| 8.2% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.4% |
| 55.3% | 3rd Down Conversion | 35.0% |
| 80.9% | Red Zone TD Rate | 73.6% |
| 0.127 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.011 |
| 13.4% | Pressure Rate | 14.1% |
Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- SoFi Stadium
- Kickoff
- Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- matrixturf
- Away rest
- 8 days
- Home rest
- 11 days
- Site
- Los Angeles Rams home game
Player Impact
Jaxson Dart
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 23/29
- Pass yds
- 230
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.9
- Sacks
- 2
Cam Skattebo
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 18
- Rush yds
- 81
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 48.6%
Devin Singletary
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 6
- Rush yds
- 16
- YPC
- 2.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 16.2%
Malik Nabers
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 69
- YPR
- 11.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 31%
Isaiah Likely
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 78
- YPR
- 9.8
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 27.6%
Away · New York Giants
Jaxson Dart
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 23/29
- Pass yds
- 230
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.9
- Sacks
- 2
Cam Skattebo
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 18
- Rush yds
- 81
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 48.6%
Devin Singletary
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 6
- Rush yds
- 16
- YPC
- 2.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 16.2%
Malik Nabers
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 69
- YPR
- 11.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 31%
Isaiah Likely
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 78
- YPR
- 9.8
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 27.6%
Home · Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 15/25
- Pass yds
- 155
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 6.2
- Sacks
- 0
Kyren Williams
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 41
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 37.9%
Blake Corum
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yds
- 54
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 34.5%
Puka Nacua
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 74
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 33.3%
Davante Adams
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 26
- YPR
- 8.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.2%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · New York Giants
Home · Los Angeles Rams
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- McVay says Rams 'hopeful' Donald will play vs. Giants on MNF
ESPN NFL · just now · LA / NYG
- Sean McVay "hopeful" Aaron Donald will play this week
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · just now · LA / NYG
- Sean McVay "hopeful" Aaron Donald will play this week
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · LA / NYG
- NY Giants add cornerback off Chargers’ practice squad
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · LAC / NYG
- In absence of Myles Garrett, Rams look to Wesley Bailey
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · LA
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · NYG
passingNew York Giants ranks in the 87th percentile for passing against the 45th percentile opposite, a 42-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · LA
efficiencyLos Angeles Rams ranks in the 39th percentile for defense against the 6th percentile opposite, a 33-point separation in the blended team profile.
Quarter scoring tendency · LA
scoringLos Angeles Rams produced 7 of 7 points in the second quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Defense: Los Angeles Rams rate 39/100 against New York Giants at 6/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed 0.011).
- Pass Rush: Los Angeles Rams rate 35/100 against New York Giants at 29/100 (Pressure Rate 14.1%).
What Could Flip It
- Situational: New York Giants rate 88/100 against Los Angeles Rams at 41/100.
- Passing: New York Giants rate 87/100 against Los Angeles Rams at 45/100 (Dropback EPA 0.229).
- Offense: New York Giants rate 84/100 against Los Angeles Rams at 48/100 (EPA / Play 0.119).
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
New York Giants visit Los Angeles Rams in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Los Angeles Rams the 80% side, with New York Giants at 20%.
Where Los Angeles Rams grade out ahead: Defense: Los Angeles Rams rate 39/100 against New York Giants at 6/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed 0.011). Pass Rush: Los Angeles Rams rate 35/100 against New York Giants at 29/100 (Pressure Rate 14.1%).
Counter-edges for New York Giants: Situational: New York Giants rate 88/100 against Los Angeles Rams at 41/100. Passing: New York Giants rate 87/100 against Los Angeles Rams at 45/100 (Dropback EPA 0.229). Offense: New York Giants rate 84/100 against Los Angeles Rams at 48/100 (EPA / Play 0.119).
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Los Angeles Rams to win this game 80% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.