Away
Philadelphia Eagles
1-0
Home
Tennessee Titans
0-1
Model Win Probability
Philadelphia Eagles · Away
80%
separation60%
Tennessee Titans · Home
20%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| PHI | Metric | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 0.039 | EPA / Play | -0.147 |
| 40.8% | Success Rate | 39.6% |
| 0.101 | Dropback EPA | -0.175 |
| -0.058 | Rush EPA | -0.093 |
| 9.5% | Explosive Play Rate | 6.6% |
| 39.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 32.3% |
| 78.9% | Red Zone TD Rate | 77.9% |
| -0.037 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.121 |
| 13.1% | Pressure Rate | 12.4% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Tennessee Titans home game
Player Impact
Jalen Hurts
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 14/25
- Pass yds
- 203
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 8.1
- Sacks
- 3
Saquon Barkley
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 83
- YPC
- 5.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 60%
Will Shipley
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 2
- Rush yds
- 4
- YPC
- 2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 8%
DeVonta Smith
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 53
- YPR
- 17.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 27.3%
Dallas Goedert
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 77
- YPR
- 19.3
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 22.7%
Away · Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 14/25
- Pass yds
- 203
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 8.1
- Sacks
- 3
Saquon Barkley
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 83
- YPC
- 5.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 60%
Will Shipley
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 2
- Rush yds
- 4
- YPC
- 2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 8%
DeVonta Smith
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 53
- YPR
- 17.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 27.3%
Dallas Goedert
TE2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 77
- YPR
- 19.3
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 22.7%
Home · Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 19/32
- Pass yds
- 140
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 4.4
- Sacks
- 3
Tony Pollard
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 7
- Rush yds
- 35
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 50%
Tyjae Spears
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 3
- Rush yds
- 12
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 21.4%
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 38
- YPR
- 7.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 21.4%
Carnell Tate
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 38
- YPR
- 9.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 21.4%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · Philadelphia Eagles
Home · Tennessee Titans
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Rookie WR Tate among multiple Titans starters ruled out vs. Jags
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · JAX / TEN
- Veteran receiver Brown gets his wish, released by Eagles
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · PHI
- Titans' Rivalries combination, Ravens' all-black threads top NFL Week 10 uniforms
ESPN NFL · 3h ago · BAL / TEN
- Report: Eagles to release veteran OL Fred Johnson
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 4h ago · PHI
- Report: Eagles to release veteran OL Fred Johnson
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · PHI
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · PHI
passingPhiladelphia Eagles ranks in the 61th percentile for passing against the 6th percentile opposite, a 55-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing edge · PHI
rushingPhiladelphia Eagles ranks in the 55th percentile for rushing against the 23th percentile opposite, a 32-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · PHI
efficiencyPhiladelphia Eagles ranks in the 71th percentile for defense against the 13th percentile opposite, a 58-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing usage concentration · PHI
rushingSaquon Barkley handled 60% of Philadelphia Eagles carries in Week 1 (15 attempts, 83 yards).
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Offense: Philadelphia Eagles rate 65/100 against Tennessee Titans at 6/100 (EPA / Play 0.039).
- Defense: Philadelphia Eagles rate 71/100 against Tennessee Titans at 13/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.037).
- Passing: Philadelphia Eagles rate 61/100 against Tennessee Titans at 6/100 (Dropback EPA 0.101).
What Could Flip It
- Tennessee Titans do not lead any measured category, so the model edge rests on a small two-week sample.
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles visit Tennessee Titans in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Philadelphia Eagles the 80% side, with Tennessee Titans at 20%.
Where Philadelphia Eagles grade out ahead: Offense: Philadelphia Eagles rate 65/100 against Tennessee Titans at 6/100 (EPA / Play 0.039). Defense: Philadelphia Eagles rate 71/100 against Tennessee Titans at 13/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.037). Passing: Philadelphia Eagles rate 61/100 against Tennessee Titans at 6/100 (Dropback EPA 0.101).
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Philadelphia Eagles to win this game 80% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics on this page are matchup context, not inputs to this older probability. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.