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Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETPHI @ TEN
Philadelphia Eagles

Away

Philadelphia Eagles

1-0

Tennessee Titans

Home

Tennessee Titans

0-1

Model Win Probability

Philadelphia Eagles · Away

80%

Edge60%

Tennessee Titans · Home

20%

Team Efficiency Comparison

65
6
Offense
61
6
Passing
55
23
Rushing
71
13
Defense
23
13
Pass Rush
58
41
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

PHIMetricTEN
0.039EPA / Play-0.147
40.8%Success Rate39.6%
0.101Dropback EPA-0.175
-0.058Rush EPA-0.093
9.5%Explosive Play Rate6.6%
39.2%3rd Down Conversion32.3%
78.9%Red Zone TD Rate77.9%
-0.037Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.121
13.1%Pressure Rate12.4%

Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Tennessee Titans home game

Player Impact

Jalen Hurts

QB

2026 Week 1

CMP/ATT
14/25
Pass yds
203
Pass TD
3
INT
0
Y/A
8.1
Sacks
3

Saquon Barkley

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
15
Rush yds
83
YPC
5.5
Rush TD
0
Targets
2
Rec
1
Rush share
60%

Will Shipley

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
2
Rush yds
4
YPC
2
Rush TD
0
Targets
1
Rec
1
Rush share
8%

DeVonta Smith

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
6
Rec
3
Rec yds
53
YPR
17.7
Rec TD
0
Target share
27.3%

Dallas Goedert

TE

2026 Week 1

Targets
5
Rec
4
Rec yds
77
YPR
19.3
Rec TD
2
Target share
22.7%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 1 game

Away · Philadelphia Eagles

Q1
0
Q2
14
Q3
3
Q4
7

Home · Tennessee Titans

Q1
3
Q2
0
Q3
0
Q4
7

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing edge · PHI

passing

Philadelphia Eagles ranks in the 61th percentile for passing against the 6th percentile opposite, a 55-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing edge · PHI

rushing

Philadelphia Eagles ranks in the 55th percentile for rushing against the 23th percentile opposite, a 32-point separation in the blended team profile.

Defense edge · PHI

efficiency

Philadelphia Eagles ranks in the 71th percentile for defense against the 13th percentile opposite, a 58-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing usage concentration · PHI

rushing

Saquon Barkley handled 60% of Philadelphia Eagles carries in Week 1 (15 attempts, 83 yards).

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Offense: Philadelphia Eagles rate 65/100 against Tennessee Titans at 6/100 (EPA / Play 0.039).
  • Defense: Philadelphia Eagles rate 71/100 against Tennessee Titans at 13/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.037).
  • Passing: Philadelphia Eagles rate 61/100 against Tennessee Titans at 6/100 (Dropback EPA 0.101).

What Could Flip It

  • Tennessee Titans do not lead any measured category, so the model edge rests on a small two-week sample.
  • Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.

Model Analysis

Philadelphia Eagles visit Tennessee Titans in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Philadelphia Eagles the 80% side, with Tennessee Titans at 20%.

Where Philadelphia Eagles grade out ahead: Offense: Philadelphia Eagles rate 65/100 against Tennessee Titans at 6/100 (EPA / Play 0.039). Defense: Philadelphia Eagles rate 71/100 against Tennessee Titans at 13/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.037). Passing: Philadelphia Eagles rate 61/100 against Tennessee Titans at 6/100 (Dropback EPA 0.101).

All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.

Forecast

The model projects Philadelphia Eagles to win this game 80% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.