Away
Pittsburgh Steelers
1-0
Home
New England Patriots
0-1
Model Win Probability
Pittsburgh Steelers · Away
52%
separation4%
New England Patriots · Home
48%
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| PIT | Metric | NE |
|---|---|---|
| -0.073 | EPA / Play | 0.079 |
| 40.6% | Success Rate | 46.5% |
| -0.072 | Dropback EPA | 0.234 |
| -0.068 | Rush EPA | -0.166 |
| 8.0% | Explosive Play Rate | 8.1% |
| 35.8% | 3rd Down Conversion | 39.9% |
| 65.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 71.0% |
| -0.084 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.013 |
| 17.1% | Pressure Rate | 17.2% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Gillette Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 11 days
- Site
- New England Patriots home game
Player Impact
Aaron Rodgers
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 24/40
- Pass yds
- 221
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 5.5
- Sacks
- 2
Jaylen Warren
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yds
- 46
- YPC
- 4.6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 47.6%
Rico Dowdle
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 8
- Rush yds
- 15
- YPC
- 1.9
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 38.1%
DK Metcalf
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 40
- YPR
- 10
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 27%
Roman Wilson
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 26
- YPR
- 8.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 16.2%
Away · Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 24/40
- Pass yds
- 221
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 5.5
- Sacks
- 2
Jaylen Warren
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yds
- 46
- YPC
- 4.6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 47.6%
Rico Dowdle
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 8
- Rush yds
- 15
- YPC
- 1.9
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 38.1%
DK Metcalf
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 40
- YPR
- 10
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 27%
Roman Wilson
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 26
- YPR
- 8.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 16.2%
Home · New England Patriots
Drake Maye
QB2026 Week 1
- CMP/ATT
- 23/33
- Pass yds
- 178
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 5.4
- Sacks
- 3
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 18
- Rush yds
- 51
- YPC
- 2.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 58.1%
Corey Kiner
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 6
- Rush yds
- 11
- YPC
- 1.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 19.4%
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 20
- YPR
- 4
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.6%
Mack Hollins
WR2026 Week 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 51
- YPR
- 12.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 16.1%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 1 gameAway · Pittsburgh Steelers
Home · New England Patriots
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- The Steelers can’t stop talking about this practice squad WR
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · PIT
- Steelers DL Derrick Harmon questionable for Bengals matchup
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · CIN / PIT
- Steelers reporter doesn’t expect Derrick Harmon to return against Bengals
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · CIN / PIT
- TreVeyon Henderson doesn’t travel with Patriots to Germany after ‘unexplainable medical emergency’
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · NE
- It's a battle for the AFC North: Steelers at Bengals Week 10 primer
ESPN NFL · 6h ago · CIN / PIT
Analytical Angles
Passing edge · NE
passingNew England Patriots ranks in the 90th percentile for passing against the 19th percentile opposite, a 71-point separation in the blended team profile.
Rushing edge · PIT
rushingPittsburgh Steelers ranks in the 42th percentile for rushing against the 6th percentile opposite, a 36-point separation in the blended team profile.
Defense edge · PIT
efficiencyPittsburgh Steelers ranks in the 84th percentile for defense against the 55th percentile opposite, a 29-point separation in the blended team profile.
Quarter scoring tendency · PIT
scoringPittsburgh Steelers produced 10 of 20 points in the second quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Rushing: Pittsburgh Steelers rate 42/100 against New England Patriots at 6/100 (Rush EPA -0.068).
- Defense: Pittsburgh Steelers rate 84/100 against New England Patriots at 55/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.084).
What Could Flip It
- Passing: New England Patriots rate 90/100 against Pittsburgh Steelers at 19/100 (Dropback EPA 0.234).
- Offense: New England Patriots rate 77/100 against Pittsburgh Steelers at 23/100 (EPA / Play 0.079).
- Situational: New England Patriots rate 53/100 against Pittsburgh Steelers at 20/100.
- Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.
Model Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers visit New England Patriots in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Pittsburgh Steelers the 52% side, with New England Patriots at 48%.
Where Pittsburgh Steelers grade out ahead: Rushing: Pittsburgh Steelers rate 42/100 against New England Patriots at 6/100 (Rush EPA -0.068). Defense: Pittsburgh Steelers rate 84/100 against New England Patriots at 55/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.084).
Counter-edges for New England Patriots: Passing: New England Patriots rate 90/100 against Pittsburgh Steelers at 19/100 (Dropback EPA 0.234). Offense: New England Patriots rate 77/100 against Pittsburgh Steelers at 23/100 (EPA / Play 0.079). Situational: New England Patriots rate 53/100 against Pittsburgh Steelers at 20/100.
All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.
Forecast
The model projects Pittsburgh Steelers to win this game 52% of the time. That is a slim edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics on this page are matchup context, not inputs to this older probability. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.