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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Compare Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

Sunday Late · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETSEA @ ARI
Seattle Seahawks

Away

Seattle Seahawks

1-0

Arizona Cardinals

Home

Arizona Cardinals

1-0

Model Win Probability

Seattle Seahawks · Away

74%

Model
separation48%

Arizona Cardinals · Home

26%

Team Efficiency Comparison

68
61
Offense
74
65
Passing
29
26
Rushing
90
48
Defense
55
6
Pass Rush
10
53
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

SEAMetricARI
0.043EPA / Play0.030
44.6%Success Rate44.9%
0.154Dropback EPA0.103
-0.091Rush EPA-0.092
11.0%Explosive Play Rate6.7%
33.9%3rd Down Conversion42.9%
54.8%Red Zone TD Rate69.8%
-0.114Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.011
15.5%Pressure Rate11.5%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
Surface
grass
Away rest
11 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Arizona Cardinals home game

Player Impact

Drew Lock

QB

2026 Week 1

CMP/ATT
16/22
Pass yds
187
Pass TD
1
INT
0
Y/A
8.5
Sacks
1

Jadarian Price

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
10
Rush yds
52
YPC
5.2
Rush TD
0
Targets
2
Rec
2
Rush share
45.5%

George Holani

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
8
Rush yds
29
YPC
3.6
Rush TD
0
Targets
1
Rec
0
Rush share
36.4%

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
11
Rec
8
Rec yds
122
YPR
15.3
Rec TD
1
Target share
45.8%

Cooper Kupp

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
3
Rec
2
Rec yds
35
YPR
17.5
Rec TD
0
Target share
12.5%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 1 game

Away · Seattle Seahawks

Q1
0
Q2
0
Q3
3
Q4
10

Home · Arizona Cardinals

Q1
7
Q2
6
Q3
3
Q4
10

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing edge · SEA

passing

Seattle Seahawks ranks in the 74th percentile for passing against the 65th percentile opposite, a 9-point separation in the blended team profile.

Defense edge · SEA

efficiency

Seattle Seahawks ranks in the 90th percentile for defense against the 48th percentile opposite, a 42-point separation in the blended team profile.

Quarter scoring tendency · SEA

scoring

Seattle Seahawks produced 10 of 13 points in the fourth quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Pass Rush: Seattle Seahawks rate 55/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 6/100 (Pressure Rate 15.5%).
  • Defense: Seattle Seahawks rate 90/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 48/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.114).
  • Passing: Seattle Seahawks rate 74/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 65/100 (Dropback EPA 0.154).

What Could Flip It

  • Situational: Arizona Cardinals rate 53/100 against Seattle Seahawks at 10/100.
  • Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.

Model Analysis

Seattle Seahawks visit Arizona Cardinals in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Seattle Seahawks the 74% side, with Arizona Cardinals at 26%.

Where Seattle Seahawks grade out ahead: Pass Rush: Seattle Seahawks rate 55/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 6/100 (Pressure Rate 15.5%). Defense: Seattle Seahawks rate 90/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 48/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.114). Passing: Seattle Seahawks rate 74/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 65/100 (Dropback EPA 0.154).

Counter-edges for Arizona Cardinals: Situational: Arizona Cardinals rate 53/100 against Seattle Seahawks at 10/100.

All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.

Forecast

The model projects Seattle Seahawks to win this game 74% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics on this page are matchup context, not inputs to this older probability. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.