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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday Late · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETSEA @ ARI
Seattle Seahawks

Away

Seattle Seahawks

1-0

Arizona Cardinals

Home

Arizona Cardinals

1-0

Model Win Probability

Seattle Seahawks · Away

74%

Edge48%

Arizona Cardinals · Home

26%

Team Efficiency Comparison

68
61
Offense
74
65
Passing
29
26
Rushing
90
48
Defense
55
6
Pass Rush
10
53
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

SEAMetricARI
0.043EPA / Play0.030
44.6%Success Rate44.9%
0.154Dropback EPA0.103
-0.091Rush EPA-0.092
11.0%Explosive Play Rate6.7%
33.9%3rd Down Conversion42.9%
54.8%Red Zone TD Rate69.8%
-0.114Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.011
15.5%Pressure Rate11.5%

Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
Surface
grass
Away rest
11 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Arizona Cardinals home game

Player Impact

Drew Lock

QB

2026 Week 1

CMP/ATT
16/22
Pass yds
187
Pass TD
1
INT
0
Y/A
8.5
Sacks
1

Jadarian Price

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
10
Rush yds
52
YPC
5.2
Rush TD
0
Targets
2
Rec
2
Rush share
45.5%

George Holani

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
8
Rush yds
29
YPC
3.6
Rush TD
0
Targets
1
Rec
0
Rush share
36.4%

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
11
Rec
8
Rec yds
122
YPR
15.3
Rec TD
1
Target share
45.8%

Cooper Kupp

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
3
Rec
2
Rec yds
35
YPR
17.5
Rec TD
0
Target share
12.5%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 1 game

Away · Seattle Seahawks

Q1
0
Q2
0
Q3
3
Q4
10

Home · Arizona Cardinals

Q1
7
Q2
6
Q3
3
Q4
10

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing edge · SEA

passing

Seattle Seahawks ranks in the 74th percentile for passing against the 65th percentile opposite, a 9-point separation in the blended team profile.

Defense edge · SEA

efficiency

Seattle Seahawks ranks in the 90th percentile for defense against the 48th percentile opposite, a 42-point separation in the blended team profile.

Quarter scoring tendency · SEA

scoring

Seattle Seahawks produced 10 of 13 points in the fourth quarter across 1 completed 2026 game — a one-game sample, so read it as description rather than trend.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Pass Rush: Seattle Seahawks rate 55/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 6/100 (Pressure Rate 15.5%).
  • Defense: Seattle Seahawks rate 90/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 48/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.114).
  • Passing: Seattle Seahawks rate 74/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 65/100 (Dropback EPA 0.154).

What Could Flip It

  • Situational: Arizona Cardinals rate 53/100 against Seattle Seahawks at 10/100.
  • Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.

Model Analysis

Seattle Seahawks visit Arizona Cardinals in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Seattle Seahawks the 74% side, with Arizona Cardinals at 26%.

Where Seattle Seahawks grade out ahead: Pass Rush: Seattle Seahawks rate 55/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 6/100 (Pressure Rate 15.5%). Defense: Seattle Seahawks rate 90/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 48/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed -0.114). Passing: Seattle Seahawks rate 74/100 against Arizona Cardinals at 65/100 (Dropback EPA 0.154).

Counter-edges for Arizona Cardinals: Situational: Arizona Cardinals rate 53/100 against Seattle Seahawks at 10/100.

All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.

Forecast

The model projects Seattle Seahawks to win this game 74% of the time. That is a clear edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.