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Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday Late · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETWAS @ DAL
Washington Commanders

Away

Washington Commanders

0-1

Dallas Cowboys

Home

Dallas Cowboys

0-1

Model Win Probability

Washington Commanders · Away

40%

Edge20%

Dallas Cowboys · Home

60%

Team Efficiency Comparison

52
94
Offense
52
84
Passing
58
81
Rushing
10
0
Defense
48
68
Pass Rush
65
83
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

WASMetricDAL
0.023EPA / Play0.135
44.8%Success Rate46.5%
0.068Dropback EPA0.206
-0.040Rush EPA0.001
7.6%Explosive Play Rate6.1%
36.6%3rd Down Conversion51.2%
90.0%Red Zone TD Rate80.9%
0.122Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.228
14.7%Pressure Rate16.6%

Blend: 70% prior full season, 30% current season to date. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
AT&T Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
Surface
matrixturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Dallas Cowboys home game

Player Impact

Jayden Daniels

QB

2026 Week 1

CMP/ATT
18/34
Pass yds
164
Pass TD
2
INT
0
Y/A
4.8
Sacks
1

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
16
Rush yds
63
YPC
3.9
Rush TD
1
Targets
1
Rec
1
Rush share
50%

Rachaad White

RB

2026 Week 1

Carries
7
Rush yds
22
YPC
3.1
Rush TD
0
Targets
2
Rec
2
Rush share
21.9%

Stefon Diggs

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
9
Rec
4
Rec yds
55
YPR
13.8
Rec TD
1
Target share
31%

Terry McLaurin

WR

2026 Week 1

Targets
4
Rec
2
Rec yds
14
YPR
7
Rec TD
0
Target share
13.8%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 1 game

Away · Washington Commanders

Q1
3
Q2
6
Q3
0
Q4
13

Home · Dallas Cowboys

Q1
0
Q2
7
Q3
7
Q4
6

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing edge · DAL

passing

Dallas Cowboys ranks in the 84th percentile for passing against the 52th percentile opposite, a 32-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing edge · DAL

rushing

Dallas Cowboys ranks in the 81th percentile for rushing against the 58th percentile opposite, a 23-point separation in the blended team profile.

Defense edge · WAS

efficiency

Washington Commanders ranks in the 10th percentile for defense against the 0th percentile opposite, a 10-point separation in the blended team profile.

Rushing usage concentration · DAL

rushing

Javonte Williams handled 66.7% of Dallas Cowboys carries in Week 1 (12 attempts, 41 yards).

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Offense: Dallas Cowboys rate 94/100 against Washington Commanders at 52/100 (EPA / Play 0.135).
  • Passing: Dallas Cowboys rate 84/100 against Washington Commanders at 52/100 (Dropback EPA 0.206).
  • Rushing: Dallas Cowboys rate 81/100 against Washington Commanders at 58/100 (Rush EPA 0.001).

What Could Flip It

  • Defense: Washington Commanders rate 10/100 against Dallas Cowboys at 0/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed 0.122).
  • Week 2 efficiency is blended 70% from the 2025 full season and 30% from 2026 play to date, so recent form is intentionally underweighted.

Model Analysis

Washington Commanders visit Dallas Cowboys in Week 2 of the 2026 regular season. The Picks Terminal Elo baseline makes Dallas Cowboys the 60% side, with Washington Commanders at 40%.

Where Dallas Cowboys grade out ahead: Offense: Dallas Cowboys rate 94/100 against Washington Commanders at 52/100 (EPA / Play 0.135). Passing: Dallas Cowboys rate 84/100 against Washington Commanders at 52/100 (Dropback EPA 0.206). Rushing: Dallas Cowboys rate 81/100 against Washington Commanders at 58/100 (Rush EPA 0.001).

Counter-edges for Washington Commanders: Defense: Washington Commanders rate 10/100 against Dallas Cowboys at 0/100 (Def. EPA / Play Allowed 0.122).

All ratings are league-wide percentiles across the 32 teams, computed from public nflverse play-by-play. Metrics without sufficient data are shown as unavailable rather than zero, and efficiency figures are matchup context — the probability itself comes from result-based Elo only.

Forecast

The model projects Dallas Cowboys to win this game 60% of the time. That is a moderate edge, and it reflects game results through the completed weeks of 2026 rather than any market price.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-elo-v0.1 — a result-based Elo baseline (teams start at 1500, K = 20, +45 Elo home-field, 0 at neutral sites) trained on completed game results only. Team efficiency metrics are league-wide percentiles from public play-by-play and are matchup context, not model inputs. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.