Away
Arizona Cardinals
1-1
Home
San Francisco 49ers
2-0
Model Win Probability
Arizona Cardinals · Away
23%
separation54%
San Francisco 49ers · Home
77%
- Elo component
- 20% ARI
- Efficiency component
- 22% ARI
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| ARI | Metric | SF |
|---|---|---|
| -0.023 | EPA / Play | 0.119 |
| 42.6% | Success Rate | 49.5% |
| 0.047 | Dropback EPA | 0.251 |
| -0.165 | Rush EPA | -0.053 |
| 10.5% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.3% |
| 42.1% | 3rd Down Conversion | 52.9% |
| 18.2% | Red Zone TD Rate | 22.7% |
| 0.067 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.025 |
| 4.8% | Pressure Rate | 3.6% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- San Francisco 49ers home game
Player Impact
Jacoby Brissett
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 44/65
- Pass yds
- 372
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 5.7
- Sacks
- 3
Tyler Allgeier
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 22
- Rush yds
- 71
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 43.1%
Jeremiyah Love
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 20
- Rush yds
- 70
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 39.2%
Trey McBride
TE2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 136
- YPR
- 8
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 36.5%
Michael Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 74
- YPR
- 10.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.2%
Away · Arizona Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 44/65
- Pass yds
- 372
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 5.7
- Sacks
- 3
Tyler Allgeier
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 22
- Rush yds
- 71
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 43.1%
Jeremiyah Love
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 20
- Rush yds
- 70
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 39.2%
Trey McBride
TE2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 136
- YPR
- 8
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 36.5%
Michael Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 74
- YPR
- 10.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.2%
Home · San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 45/56
- Pass yds
- 492
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 8.8
- Sacks
- 0
Kaelon Black
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 21
- Rush yds
- 90
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 36.8%
Christian McCaffrey
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 20
- Rush yds
- 91
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 35.1%
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 79
- YPR
- 8.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 20%
Mike Evans
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 103
- YPR
- 11.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 18.2%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Arizona Cardinals
Garrett WilliamsCB
OUTAchilles · Limited Participation in Practice
Isaac SeumaloOL
QUESTIONABLEShoulder · Limited Participation in Practice
Andrew BillingsDL
QUESTIONABLEKnee · Limited Participation in Practice
Roy LopezDL
QUESTIONABLEGroin · Limited Participation in Practice
Home · San Francisco 49ers
De'Zhaun StriblingWR
OUTAnkle · Did Not Participate In Practice
Eddy PineiroK
QUESTIONABLEIllness · Did Not Participate In Practice
Kaelon BlackRB
QUESTIONABLEGroin · Limited Participation in Practice
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 2 gamesAway · Arizona Cardinals
Home · San Francisco 49ers
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Sean McVay blames his 'dumbass' self for Australia travel plans that appear to have tanked Rams vs. 49ers
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · LA / SF
- Miami Dolphins Fans Sound Off On Game Two
Yahoo Sports NFL · 7h ago · MIA / SF
- Cardinals CB Johnson could be out for the season with neck injury
ESPN NFL · 7h ago · ARI / SEA
- 49ers WR Demarcus Robinson will be sidelined with high ankle sprain
Yahoo Sports NFL · 7h ago · SF
- Aaron Donald makes big stop in his return, helping Rams dominate Giants
Yahoo Sports NFL · 7h ago · LA / NYG / SF
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · ARI
passingArizona Cardinals is at the 41th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · ARI
efficiencyArizona Cardinals is at the 22th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Passing profile · SF
passingSan Francisco 49ers is at the 94th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · SF
efficiencySan Francisco 49ers is at the 41th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Blended model gives Arizona Cardinals 23% and San Francisco 49ers 77%.
- Elo puts Arizona Cardinals at 20.3% and the efficiency model at 22.4%.
- Both components favour San Francisco 49ers, a 2.1 point difference between them.
What Could Flip It
- A 2.1 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the Arizona Cardinals side.
- Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.
Model Analysis
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at 23% to win at San Francisco 49ers (2-0). Elo puts Arizona Cardinals at 20.3% and the efficiency model at 22.4%; the blend lands at 23%. Both components agree on San Francisco 49ers.
Forecast
San Francisco 49ers projected to win, 77% of the time in the model.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.