Away
Atlanta Falcons
0-2
Home
Green Bay Packers
1-1
Model Win Probability
Atlanta Falcons · Away
31%
separation38%
Green Bay Packers · Home
69%
- Elo component
- 26% ATL
- Efficiency component
- 37% ATL
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| ATL | Metric | GB |
|---|---|---|
| -0.096 | EPA / Play | 0.064 |
| 42.6% | Success Rate | 45.5% |
| -0.102 | Dropback EPA | 0.205 |
| -0.109 | Rush EPA | -0.174 |
| 12.0% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.9% |
| 33.9% | 3rd Down Conversion | 44.7% |
| 20.8% | Red Zone TD Rate | 18.2% |
| -0.019 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.022 |
| 7.8% | Pressure Rate | 6.1% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Kickoff
- Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 4 days
- Home rest
- 4 days
- Site
- Green Bay Packers home game
Player Impact
Cooper Rush
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 22/39
- Pass yds
- 229
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 5.9
- Sacks
- 5
Bijan Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 37
- Rush yds
- 155
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 11
- Rush share
- 58.7%
Brian Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 20
- Rush yds
- 82
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 31.7%
Drake London
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 80
- YPR
- 13.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18%
Jahan Dotson
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 30
- YPR
- 10
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 14%
Away · Atlanta Falcons
Cooper Rush
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 22/39
- Pass yds
- 229
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 5.9
- Sacks
- 5
Bijan Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 37
- Rush yds
- 155
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 11
- Rush share
- 58.7%
Brian Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 20
- Rush yds
- 82
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 31.7%
Drake London
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 80
- YPR
- 13.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18%
Jahan Dotson
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 30
- YPR
- 10
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 14%
Home · Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 37/71
- Pass yds
- 532
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.5
- Sacks
- 7
MarShawn Lloyd
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 19
- Rush yds
- 57
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 48.7%
Chris Brooks
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 40
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 28.2%
Christian Watson
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 188
- YPR
- 18.8
- Rec TD
- 3
- Target share
- 27.5%
Matthew Golden
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 153
- YPR
- 15.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 26.1%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.QB
OUTKnee · Full Participation in Practice
Billy Bowman Jr.CB
OUTAchilles · Full Participation in Practice
Tua TagovailoaQB
DOUBTFULOblique · Did Not Participate In Practice
Chris LindstromOL
QUESTIONABLEConcussion · Full Participation in Practice
Home · Green Bay Packers
Warren BrinsonDL
OUTCalf · Did Not Participate In Practice
Javon HargraveDL
DOUBTFULKnee · Did Not Participate In Practice
Aaron BanksOL
QUESTIONABLEKnee · Limited Participation in Practice
Benjamin St-JusteCB
QUESTIONABLEHamstring · Limited Participation in Practice
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 2 gamesAway · Atlanta Falcons
Home · Green Bay Packers
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · ATL
passingAtlanta Falcons is at the 9th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · ATL
efficiencyAtlanta Falcons is at the 56th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Passing profile · GB
passingGreen Bay Packers is at the 84th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · GB
efficiencyGreen Bay Packers is at the 47th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Blended model gives Atlanta Falcons 31% and Green Bay Packers 69%.
- Elo puts Atlanta Falcons at 26.2% and the efficiency model at 37.4%.
- Both components favour Green Bay Packers, a 11.2 point difference between them.
What Could Flip It
- A 11.2 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the Atlanta Falcons side.
- Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.
Model Analysis
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at 31% to win at Green Bay Packers (1-1). Elo puts Atlanta Falcons at 26.2% and the efficiency model at 37.4%; the blend lands at 31%. Both components agree on Green Bay Packers.
Forecast
Green Bay Packers projected to win, 69% of the time in the model.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.