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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Thursday Night · Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETATL @ GB
Atlanta Falcons

Away

Atlanta Falcons

0-2

Green Bay Packers

Home

Green Bay Packers

1-1

Model Win Probability

Atlanta Falcons · Away

31%

Model
separation38%

Green Bay Packers · Home

69%

Signal: Moderate· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
26% ATL
Efficiency component
37% ATL
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

16
72
Offense
9
84
Passing
34
9
Rushing
56
47
Defense
91
56
Pass Rush
42
66
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

ATLMetricGB
-0.096EPA / Play0.064
42.6%Success Rate45.5%
-0.102Dropback EPA0.205
-0.109Rush EPA-0.174
12.0%Explosive Play Rate13.9%
33.9%3rd Down Conversion44.7%
20.8%Red Zone TD Rate18.2%
-0.019Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.022
7.8%Pressure Rate6.1%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
4 days
Home rest
4 days
Site
Green Bay Packers home game

Player Impact

Cooper Rush

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
22/39
Pass yds
229
Pass TD
1
INT
4
Y/A
5.9
Sacks
5

Bijan Robinson

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
37
Rush yds
155
YPC
4.2
Rush TD
0
Targets
14
Rec
11
Rush share
58.7%

Brian Robinson

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
20
Rush yds
82
YPC
4.1
Rush TD
0
Targets
2
Rec
2
Rush share
31.7%

Drake London

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
9
Rec
6
Rec yds
80
YPR
13.3
Rec TD
0
Target share
18%

Jahan Dotson

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
7
Rec
3
Rec yds
30
YPR
10
Rec TD
0
Target share
14%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr.QB

OUT

Knee · Full Participation in Practice

Billy Bowman Jr.CB

OUT

Achilles · Full Participation in Practice

Tua TagovailoaQB

DOUBTFUL

Oblique · Did Not Participate In Practice

Chris LindstromOL

QUESTIONABLE

Concussion · Full Participation in Practice

Home · Green Bay Packers

Warren BrinsonDL

OUT

Calf · Did Not Participate In Practice

Javon HargraveDL

DOUBTFUL

Knee · Did Not Participate In Practice

Aaron BanksOL

QUESTIONABLE

Knee · Limited Participation in Practice

Benjamin St-JusteCB

QUESTIONABLE

Hamstring · Limited Participation in Practice

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · Atlanta Falcons

Q1
7
Q2
3
Q3
3
Q4
3

Home · Green Bay Packers

Q1
9
Q2
17
Q3
3
Q4
10

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · ATL

passing

Atlanta Falcons is at the 9th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · ATL

efficiency

Atlanta Falcons is at the 56th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · GB

passing

Green Bay Packers is at the 84th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · GB

efficiency

Green Bay Packers is at the 47th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives Atlanta Falcons 31% and Green Bay Packers 69%.
  • Elo puts Atlanta Falcons at 26.2% and the efficiency model at 37.4%.
  • Both components favour Green Bay Packers, a 11.2 point difference between them.

What Could Flip It

  • A 11.2 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the Atlanta Falcons side.
  • Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at 31% to win at Green Bay Packers (1-1). Elo puts Atlanta Falcons at 26.2% and the efficiency model at 37.4%; the blend lands at 31%. Both components agree on Green Bay Packers.

Forecast

Green Bay Packers projected to win, 69% of the time in the model.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.