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Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETCAR @ CLE
Carolina Panthers

Away

Carolina Panthers

1-1

Cleveland Browns

Home

Cleveland Browns

1-1

Model Win Probability

Carolina Panthers · Away

50%

Model
separation0%

Cleveland Browns · Home

50%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
46% CAR
Efficiency component
65% CAR
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

44
6
Offense
44
3
Passing
28
19
Rushing
34
78
Defense
34
94
Pass Rush
20
6
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

CARMetricCLE
-0.015EPA / Play-0.167
43.3%Success Rate36.5%
0.057Dropback EPA-0.162
-0.129Rush EPA-0.160
11.5%Explosive Play Rate9.4%
39.2%3rd Down Conversion34.9%
15.9%Red Zone TD Rate13.5%
0.042Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.054
5.3%Pressure Rate8.3%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Cleveland Browns home game

Player Impact

Bryce Young

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
46/73
Pass yds
648
Pass TD
6
INT
1
Y/A
8.9
Sacks
4

Chuba Hubbard

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
22
Rush yds
102
YPC
4.6
Rush TD
1
Targets
5
Rec
5
Rush share
50%

Jonathon Brooks

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
9
Rush yds
30
YPC
3.3
Rush TD
0
Targets
3
Rec
2
Rush share
20.5%

Jalen Coker

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
18
Rec
16
Rec yds
204
YPR
12.8
Rec TD
2
Target share
27.3%

Tetairoa McMillan

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
18
Rec
10
Rec yds
176
YPR
17.6
Rec TD
0
Target share
27.3%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Carolina Panthers

Bobby Brown IIIDL

OUT

Back · Did Not Participate In Practice

Patrick Jones IILB

QUESTIONABLE

Back · Limited Participation in Practice

Home · Cleveland Browns

Teven JenkinsOL

OUT

Back · Did Not Participate In Practice

Noah IgbinogheneCB

QUESTIONABLE

Hand

Tyson CampbellCB

QUESTIONABLE

Ankle · Limited Participation in Practice

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · Carolina Panthers

Q1
17
Q2
27
Q3
21
Q4
6

Home · Cleveland Browns

Q1
3
Q2
3
Q3
13
Q4
14

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · CAR

passing

Carolina Panthers is at the 44th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · CAR

efficiency

Carolina Panthers is at the 34th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · CLE

passing

Cleveland Browns is at the 3th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · CLE

efficiency

Cleveland Browns is at the 78th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives Carolina Panthers 50% and Cleveland Browns 50%.
  • Elo puts Carolina Panthers at 45.9% and the efficiency model at 65.2%.
  • The two components disagree by 19.3 points, so the blend is less confident.

What Could Flip It

  • Rating and efficiency views point in opposite directions on this game.
  • Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Carolina Panthers (1-1) at 50% to win at Cleveland Browns (1-1). Elo puts Carolina Panthers at 45.9% and the efficiency model at 65.2%; the blend lands at 50%. The components disagree, which pulls the blend toward the middle.

Forecast

Too close to separate: the model splits Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns evenly.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.