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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETHOU @ IND
Houston Texans

Away

Houston Texans

0-2

Indianapolis Colts

Home

Indianapolis Colts

0-2

Model Win Probability

Houston Texans · Away

54%

Model
separation8%

Indianapolis Colts · Home

46%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
62% HOU
Efficiency component
42% HOU
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

34
75
Offense
50
53
Passing
6
100
Rushing
91
31
Defense
84
31
Pass Rush
18
78
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

HOUMetricIND
-0.029EPA / Play0.066
41.4%Success Rate46.2%
0.068Dropback EPA0.078
-0.215Rush EPA0.074
11.2%Explosive Play Rate13.2%
39.8%3rd Down Conversion42.1%
15.0%Red Zone TD Rate22.8%
-0.076Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.050
7.6%Pressure Rate5.2%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Indianapolis Colts home game

Player Impact

C.J. Stroud

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
56/93
Pass yds
627
Pass TD
2
INT
0
Y/A
6.7
Sacks
7

David Montgomery

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
26
Rush yds
70
YPC
2.7
Rush TD
2
Targets
5
Rec
5
Rush share
52%

Woody Marks

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
17
Rush yds
50
YPC
2.9
Rush TD
0
Targets
7
Rec
6
Rush share
34%

Dalton Schultz

TE

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
22
Rec
16
Rec yds
175
YPR
10.9
Rec TD
0
Target share
25.3%

Xavier Hutchinson

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
15
Rec
6
Rec yds
69
YPR
11.5
Rec TD
0
Target share
17.2%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Houston Texans

Jadeveon ClowneyDL

OUT

Knee · Did Not Participate In Practice

Nico CollinsWR

OUT

Hamstring · Did Not Participate In Practice

Jacob HummelLB

OUT

Groin · Did Not Participate In Practice

Ed IngramOL

OUT

Groin · Did Not Participate In Practice

Home · Indianapolis Colts

Ashton DulinWR

OUT

Ankle · Did Not Participate In Practice

DJ GiddensRB

QUESTIONABLE

Knee · Full Participation in Practice

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · Houston Texans

Q1
7
Q2
17
Q3
3
Q4
10

Home · Indianapolis Colts

Q1
13
Q2
20
Q3
3
Q4
14

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · HOU

passing

Houston Texans is at the 50th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · HOU

efficiency

Houston Texans is at the 91th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · IND

passing

Indianapolis Colts is at the 53th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · IND

efficiency

Indianapolis Colts is at the 31th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives Houston Texans 54% and Indianapolis Colts 46%.
  • Elo puts Houston Texans at 62.2% and the efficiency model at 42.3%.
  • The two components disagree by 19.9 points, so the blend is less confident.

What Could Flip It

  • Rating and efficiency views point in opposite directions on this game.
  • Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Houston Texans (0-2) at 54% to win at Indianapolis Colts (0-2). Elo puts Houston Texans at 62.2% and the efficiency model at 42.3%; the blend lands at 54%. The components disagree, which pulls the blend toward the middle.

Forecast

Houston Texans projected to win, 54% of the time in the model.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.