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Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETKC @ MIA
Kansas City Chiefs

Away

Kansas City Chiefs

2-0

Miami Dolphins

Home

Miami Dolphins

0-2

Model Win Probability

Kansas City Chiefs · Away

64%

Model
separation28%

Miami Dolphins · Home

36%

Signal: Lean· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
66% KC
Efficiency component
70% KC
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

59
28
Offense
56
28
Passing
91
47
Rushing
72
16
Defense
38
22
Pass Rush
52
12
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

KCMetricMIA
0.054EPA / Play-0.046
44.7%Success Rate41.0%
0.081Dropback EPA-0.003
0.000Rush EPA-0.099
11.2%Explosive Play Rate12.7%
40.7%3rd Down Conversion35.4%
18.7%Red Zone TD Rate15.7%
-0.037Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.103
5.7%Pressure Rate5.0%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Miami Dolphins home game

Player Impact

Patrick Mahomes

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
47/74
Pass yds
566
Pass TD
5
INT
1
Y/A
7.6
Sacks
4

Kenneth Walker III

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
47
Rush yds
290
YPC
6.2
Rush TD
1
Targets
16
Rec
9
Rush share
70.1%

Emmett Johnson

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
10
Rush yds
39
YPC
3.9
Rush TD
0
Targets
4
Rec
4
Rush share
14.9%

Travis Kelce

TE

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
16
Rec
12
Rec yds
172
YPR
14.3
Rec TD
1
Target share
23.5%

Xavier Worthy

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
13
Rec
8
Rec yds
43
YPR
5.4
Rec TD
1
Target share
19.1%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Kansas City Chiefs

Chamarri ConnerS

OUT

Knee · Did Not Participate In Practice

Josh SimmonsOL

OUT

Back · Did Not Participate In Practice

Chris JonesDL

QUESTIONABLE

Calf · Limited Participation in Practice

Mansoor DelaneCB

QUESTIONABLE

Shoulder · Limited Participation in Practice

Home · Miami Dolphins

Ronnie HarrisonLB

OUT

Hamstring · Did Not Participate In Practice

Chop RobinsonLB

OUT

Concussion · Did Not Participate In Practice

Tucker AddingtonOTHER

QUESTIONABLE

Shoulder · Limited Participation in Practice

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · Kansas City Chiefs

Q1
17
Q2
14
Q3
17
Q4
10

Home · Miami Dolphins

Q1
0
Q2
12
Q3
7
Q4
7

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · KC

passing

Kansas City Chiefs is at the 56th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · KC

efficiency

Kansas City Chiefs is at the 72th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · MIA

passing

Miami Dolphins is at the 28th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · MIA

efficiency

Miami Dolphins is at the 16th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives Kansas City Chiefs 64% and Miami Dolphins 36%.
  • Elo puts Kansas City Chiefs at 65.5% and the efficiency model at 70.3%.
  • Both components favour Kansas City Chiefs, a 4.8 point difference between them.

What Could Flip It

  • A 4.8 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the Miami Dolphins side.
  • Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at 64% to win at Miami Dolphins (0-2). Elo puts Kansas City Chiefs at 65.5% and the efficiency model at 70.3%; the blend lands at 64%. Both components agree on Kansas City Chiefs.

Forecast

Kansas City Chiefs projected to win, 64% of the time in the model.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.