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Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Sunday Late · Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETLV @ NO
Las Vegas Raiders

Away

Las Vegas Raiders

2-0

New Orleans Saints

Home

New Orleans Saints

1-1

Model Win Probability

Las Vegas Raiders · Away

36%

Model
separation28%

New Orleans Saints · Home

64%

Signal: Lean· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
38% LV
Efficiency component
29% LV
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

3
25
Offense
16
34
Passing
3
25
Rushing
75
62
Defense
75
81
Pass Rush
20
50
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

LVMetricNO
-0.175EPA / Play-0.046
38.3%Success Rate42.6%
-0.081Dropback EPA0.022
-0.304Rush EPA-0.154
9.2%Explosive Play Rate10.3%
36.2%3rd Down Conversion42.7%
16.2%Red Zone TD Rate16.4%
-0.040Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.033
6.9%Pressure Rate7.1%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET
Roof
dome
Surface
sportturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
New Orleans Saints home game

Player Impact

Kirk Cousins

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
40/59
Pass yds
413
Pass TD
6
INT
3
Y/A
7
Sacks
2

Ashton Jeanty

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
44
Rush yds
150
YPC
3.4
Rush TD
0
Targets
13
Rec
10
Rush share
66.7%

Mike Washington Jr.

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
10
Rush yds
48
YPC
4.8
Rush TD
0
Targets
1
Rec
0
Rush share
15.2%

Michael Mayer

TE

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
11
Rec
9
Rec yds
55
YPR
6.1
Rec TD
0
Target share
19%

Tre Tucker

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
11
Rec
7
Rec yds
146
YPR
20.9
Rec TD
1
Target share
19%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Las Vegas Raiders

Darien PorterCB

OUT

Foot · Did Not Participate In Practice

Brock BowersTE

DOUBTFUL

Knee · Limited Participation in Practice

Aidan O'ConnellQB

QUESTIONABLE

Not injury related - personal matter · Did Not Participate In Practice

Home · New Orleans Saints

Zach WoodOTHER

OUT

Calf · Did Not Participate In Practice

Isaiah StalbirdLB

DOUBTFUL

Shoulder · Did Not Participate In Practice

Chase YoungLB

QUESTIONABLE

Calf · Limited Participation in Practice

Chris OlaveWR

QUESTIONABLE

Hamstring · Limited Participation in Practice

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · Las Vegas Raiders

Q1
7
Q2
20
Q3
17
Q4
9

Home · New Orleans Saints

Q1
0
Q2
6
Q3
17
Q4
25

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · LV

passing

Las Vegas Raiders is at the 16th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · LV

efficiency

Las Vegas Raiders is at the 75th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · NO

passing

New Orleans Saints is at the 34th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · NO

efficiency

New Orleans Saints is at the 62th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives Las Vegas Raiders 36% and New Orleans Saints 64%.
  • Elo puts Las Vegas Raiders at 37.6% and the efficiency model at 28.9%.
  • Both components favour New Orleans Saints, a 8.7 point difference between them.

What Could Flip It

  • A 8.7 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the Las Vegas Raiders side.
  • Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) at 36% to win at New Orleans Saints (1-1). Elo puts Las Vegas Raiders at 37.6% and the efficiency model at 28.9%; the blend lands at 36%. Both components agree on New Orleans Saints.

Forecast

New Orleans Saints projected to win, 64% of the time in the model.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.