Away
Los Angeles Chargers
0-2
Home
Buffalo Bills
2-0
Model Win Probability
Los Angeles Chargers · Away
24%
separation52%
Buffalo Bills · Home
76%
- Elo component
- 23% LAC
- Efficiency component
- 19% LAC
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| LAC | Metric | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| -0.063 | EPA / Play | 0.183 |
| 42.3% | Success Rate | 49.0% |
| 0.021 | Dropback EPA | 0.286 |
| -0.156 | Rush EPA | 0.018 |
| 11.0% | Explosive Play Rate | 15.8% |
| 43.9% | 3rd Down Conversion | 50.6% |
| 18.3% | Red Zone TD Rate | 22.5% |
| -0.061 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.023 |
| 6.6% | Pressure Rate | 6.7% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- a_turf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 10 days
- Site
- Buffalo Bills home game
Player Impact
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 32/54
- Pass yds
- 401
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 6
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 137
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 66%
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 33
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 17%
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 24
- YPR
- 8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20.8%
Ladd McConkey
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 117
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 18.9%
Away · Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 32/54
- Pass yds
- 401
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 6
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 137
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 66%
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 33
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 17%
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 3
- Rec yds
- 24
- YPR
- 8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20.8%
Ladd McConkey
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 117
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 18.9%
Home · Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 40/60
- Pass yds
- 582
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 9.7
- Sacks
- 4
James Cook
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 34
- Rush yds
- 192
- YPC
- 5.6
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 59.6%
Frank Gore Jr.
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 1
- Rush yds
- 3
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 1.8%
Dalton Kincaid
TE2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 225
- YPR
- 18.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 25%
Khalil Shakir
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 88
- YPR
- 12.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 21.4%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Los Angeles Chargers
Trey PipkinsOL
OUTKnee · Did Not Participate In Practice
Elijah MoldenS
OUTHamstring · Did Not Participate In Practice
Deane LeonardCB
QUESTIONABLEAbdomen · Limited Participation in Practice
Ladd McConkeyWR
QUESTIONABLERib · Limited Participation in Practice
Home · Buffalo Bills
Ty JohnsonRB
QUESTIONABLEHamstring · Limited Participation in Practice
Cole BishopS
QUESTIONABLEKnee · Limited Participation in Practice
T.J. SandersDL
QUESTIONABLEKnee · Limited Participation in Practice
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 2 gamesAway · Los Angeles Chargers
Home · Buffalo Bills
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Super Bowl LXI odds: Bills close gap on Rams, Bears tumble
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · BUF / CHI / LA
- Long-time Bills radio voice John Murphy believes he lost credential over criticism of Joe Brady
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 5h ago · BUF
- Chargers, amid 0-2 start, placing TEs Njoku, Kolar on IR
ESPN NFL · 6h ago · LAC
- Buffalo Bills will face a Los Angeles Chargers team thin at TE in Week 3
Yahoo Sports NFL · 7h ago · BUF / LAC
- Chargers place David Njoku, Charlie Kolar on injured reserve
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · LAC
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · LAC
passingLos Angeles Chargers is at the 31th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · LAC
efficiencyLos Angeles Chargers is at the 84th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Passing profile · BUF
passingBuffalo Bills is at the 100th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · BUF
efficiencyBuffalo Bills is at the 44th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Blended model gives Los Angeles Chargers 24% and Buffalo Bills 76%.
- Elo puts Los Angeles Chargers at 22.8% and the efficiency model at 18.7%.
- Both components favour Buffalo Bills, a 4.1 point difference between them.
What Could Flip It
- A 4.1 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the Los Angeles Chargers side.
- Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.
Model Analysis
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) at 24% to win at Buffalo Bills (2-0). Elo puts Los Angeles Chargers at 22.8% and the efficiency model at 18.7%; the blend lands at 24%. Both components agree on Buffalo Bills.
Forecast
Buffalo Bills projected to win, 76% of the time in the model.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.