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Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

Sunday Night · Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ETLA @ DEN
Los Angeles Rams

Away

Los Angeles Rams

0-1

Denver Broncos

Home

Denver Broncos

1-1

Model Win Probability

Los Angeles Rams · Away

47%

Model
separation6%

Denver Broncos · Home

53%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
42% LA
Efficiency component
62% LA
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

88
50
Offense
78
47
Passing
84
53
Rushing
69
81
Defense
50
97
Pass Rush
62
42
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

LAMetricDEN
0.098EPA / Play-0.001
51.1%Success Rate42.9%
0.161Dropback EPA0.067
-0.021Rush EPA-0.096
14.2%Explosive Play Rate11.5%
40.6%3rd Down Conversion39.5%
21.6%Red Zone TD Rate18.6%
-0.037Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.056
6.0%Pressure Rate8.4%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
6 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Denver Broncos home game

Player Impact

Matthew Stafford

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
37/56
Pass yds
482
Pass TD
4
INT
2
Y/A
8.6
Sacks
1

Kyren Williams

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
23
Rush yds
126
YPC
5.5
Rush TD
1
Targets
5
Rec
5
Rush share
40.4%

Blake Corum

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
22
Rush yds
133
YPC
6
Rush TD
0
Targets
1
Rec
1
Rush share
38.6%

Davante Adams

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
16
Rec
11
Rec yds
221
YPR
20.1
Rec TD
2
Target share
28.1%

Terrance Ferguson

TE

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
10
Rec
6
Rec yds
54
YPR
9
Rec TD
1
Target share
17.5%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Los Angeles Rams

Kamren KinchensS

OUT

Hamstring · Did Not Participate In Practice

Jordan WhittingtonWR

DOUBTFUL

Quadricep · Did Not Participate In Practice

Puka NacuaWR

QUESTIONABLE

Hip · Did Not Participate In Practice

Home · Denver Broncos

Marvin Mims Jr.WR

OUT

Foot · Did Not Participate In Practice

RJ HarveyRB

QUESTIONABLE

Hamstring · Limited Participation in Practice

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · Los Angeles Rams

Q1
0
Q2
7
Q3
0
Q4
0

Home · Denver Broncos

Q1
7
Q2
3
Q3
6
Q4
14

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · LA

passing

Los Angeles Rams is at the 78th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · LA

efficiency

Los Angeles Rams is at the 69th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · DEN

passing

Denver Broncos is at the 47th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · DEN

efficiency

Denver Broncos is at the 81th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives Los Angeles Rams 47% and Denver Broncos 53%.
  • Elo puts Los Angeles Rams at 41.5% and the efficiency model at 61.8%.
  • The two components disagree by 20.3 points, so the blend is less confident.

What Could Flip It

  • Rating and efficiency views point in opposite directions on this game.
  • Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Los Angeles Rams (0-1) at 47% to win at Denver Broncos (1-1). Elo puts Los Angeles Rams at 41.5% and the efficiency model at 61.8%; the blend lands at 47%. The components disagree, which pulls the blend toward the middle.

Forecast

Denver Broncos projected to win, 53% of the time in the model.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.