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Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday Late · Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ETMIN @ TB
Minnesota Vikings

Away

Minnesota Vikings

2-0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-2

Model Win Probability

Minnesota Vikings · Away

56%

Model
separation12%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Home

44%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
64% MIN
Efficiency component
43% MIN
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

19
41
Offense
12
38
Passing
41
69
Rushing
97
50
Defense
100
28
Pass Rush
48
48
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

MINMetricTB
-0.091EPA / Play-0.021
41.5%Success Rate43.4%
-0.086Dropback EPA0.024
-0.107Rush EPA-0.050
11.4%Explosive Play Rate10.8%
37.5%3rd Down Conversion42.2%
20.5%Red Zone TD Rate16.4%
-0.107Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.017
8.9%Pressure Rate5.2%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Tampa Bay Buccaneers home game

Player Impact

Carson Wentz

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
23/39
Pass yds
276
Pass TD
3
INT
0
Y/A
7.1
Sacks
6

Aaron Jones

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
35
Rush yds
145
YPC
4.1
Rush TD
1
Targets
1
Rec
0
Rush share
56.5%

Jordan Mason

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
15
Rush yds
59
YPC
3.9
Rush TD
1
Targets
0
Rec
0
Rush share
24.2%

Justin Jefferson

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
15
Rec
11
Rec yds
147
YPR
13.4
Rec TD
2
Target share
35.7%

T.J. Hockenson

TE

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
9
Rec
7
Rec yds
65
YPR
9.3
Rec TD
1
Target share
21.4%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Minnesota Vikings

Kyler MurrayQB

OUT

Concussion · Limited Participation in Practice

Jauan JenningsWR

OUT

Not injury related - personal matter · Did Not Participate In Practice

Brian O'NeillOL

QUESTIONABLE

Knee · Limited Participation in Practice

Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Miles KillebrewS

QUESTIONABLE

Concussion · Full Participation in Practice

Jalen McMillanWR

QUESTIONABLE

Knee · Full Participation in Practice

Jacob ParrishCB

QUESTIONABLE

Back · Full Participation in Practice

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · Minnesota Vikings

Q1
6
Q2
10
Q3
7
Q4
25

Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Q1
9
Q2
10
Q3
17
Q4
10

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · MIN

passing

Minnesota Vikings is at the 12th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · MIN

efficiency

Minnesota Vikings is at the 97th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · TB

passing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers is at the 38th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · TB

efficiency

Tampa Bay Buccaneers is at the 50th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives Minnesota Vikings 56% and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44%.
  • Elo puts Minnesota Vikings at 64.4% and the efficiency model at 43.1%.
  • The two components disagree by 21.3 points, so the blend is less confident.

What Could Flip It

  • Rating and efficiency views point in opposite directions on this game.
  • Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Minnesota Vikings (2-0) at 56% to win at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2). Elo puts Minnesota Vikings at 64.4% and the efficiency model at 43.1%; the blend lands at 56%. The components disagree, which pulls the blend toward the middle.

Forecast

Minnesota Vikings projected to win, 56% of the time in the model.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.