Away
New England Patriots
1-1
Home
Jacksonville Jaguars
1-1
Model Win Probability
New England Patriots · Away
46%
separation8%
Jacksonville Jaguars · Home
54%
- Elo component
- 46% NE
- Efficiency component
- 46% NE
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NE | Metric | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 0.121 | EPA / Play | 0.058 |
| 47.1% | Success Rate | 46.0% |
| 0.280 | Dropback EPA | 0.161 |
| -0.108 | Rush EPA | -0.080 |
| 13.9% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.1% |
| 43.3% | 3rd Down Conversion | 42.5% |
| 20.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 22.7% |
| -0.066 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.080 |
| 6.0% | Pressure Rate | 4.9% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Jacksonville Jaguars home game
Player Impact
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 37/55
- Pass yds
- 386
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7
- Sacks
- 6
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 24
- Rush yds
- 94
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 6
- Rush share
- 40.7%
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 16
- Rush yds
- 76
- YPC
- 4.8
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 27.1%
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 29
- YPR
- 4.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.3%
Hunter Henry
TE2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 66
- YPR
- 11
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 15.4%
Away · New England Patriots
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 37/55
- Pass yds
- 386
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7
- Sacks
- 6
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 24
- Rush yds
- 94
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 6
- Rush share
- 40.7%
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 16
- Rush yds
- 76
- YPC
- 4.8
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 27.1%
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 29
- YPR
- 4.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.3%
Hunter Henry
TE2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 66
- YPR
- 11
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 15.4%
Home · Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 35/52
- Pass yds
- 434
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 8.3
- Sacks
- 3
Bhayshul Tuten
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 131
- YPC
- 4.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 50%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 12
- Rush yds
- 36
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 21.4%
Parker Washington
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 181
- YPR
- 15.1
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 36.7%
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 80
- YPR
- 13.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 22.4%
Injuries & Availability
Away · New England Patriots
Carlton Davis IIICB
OUTNeck · Did Not Participate In Practice
Dametrious CrownoverOL
OUTKnee · Did Not Participate In Practice
Dre'Mont JonesLB
QUESTIONABLEFoot · Limited Participation in Practice
Ben BrownOL
QUESTIONABLEKnee · Limited Participation in Practice
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 2 gamesAway · New England Patriots
Home · Jacksonville Jaguars
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Patriots rooting guide for NFL Week 2
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · NE
- Favorite plays from the Broncos vs. Jaguars game
Yahoo Sports NFL · 7h ago · DEN / JAX
- Patriots projected to drop Week 3 game in Jacksonville
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · NE
- Patriots bring four tight ends in for workouts following win over Steelers
Yahoo Sports NFL · 9h ago · NE / PIT
- Steelers OT Troy Fautanu seen in walking boot after loss to Patriots
Yahoo Sports NFL · 9h ago · NE / PIT
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · NE
passingNew England Patriots is at the 97th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · NE
efficiencyNew England Patriots is at the 88th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Passing profile · JAX
passingJacksonville Jaguars is at the 75th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · JAX
efficiencyJacksonville Jaguars is at the 94th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Blended model gives New England Patriots 46% and Jacksonville Jaguars 54%.
- Elo puts New England Patriots at 46.3% and the efficiency model at 46.2%.
- Both components favour Jacksonville Jaguars, a 0.1 point difference between them.
What Could Flip It
- A 0.1 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the New England Patriots side.
- Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.
Model Analysis
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates New England Patriots (1-1) at 46% to win at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1). Elo puts New England Patriots at 46.3% and the efficiency model at 46.2%; the blend lands at 46%. Both components agree on Jacksonville Jaguars.
Forecast
Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win, 54% of the time in the model.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.