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New York Jets at Detroit Lions

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETNYJ @ DET
New York Jets

Away

New York Jets

1-1

Detroit Lions

Home

Detroit Lions

1-1

Model Win Probability

New York Jets · Away

21%

Model
separation58%

Detroit Lions · Home

79%

Signal: Strong· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
18% NYJ
Efficiency component
19% NYJ
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

12
81
Offense
19
81
Passing
12
44
Rushing
19
28
Defense
16
78
Pass Rush
12
56
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

NYJMetricDET
-0.107EPA / Play0.081
40.6%Success Rate45.4%
-0.068Dropback EPA0.201
-0.167Rush EPA-0.099
8.9%Explosive Play Rate14.2%
35.6%3rd Down Conversion39.9%
15.4%Red Zone TD Rate20.6%
0.093Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.059
4.9%Pressure Rate7.0%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
dome
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
10 days
Site
Detroit Lions home game

Player Impact

Geno Smith

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
46/65
Pass yds
462
Pass TD
1
INT
0
Y/A
7.1
Sacks
4

Breece Hall

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
38
Rush yds
131
YPC
3.4
Rush TD
1
Targets
7
Rec
7
Rush share
57.6%

Braelon Allen

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
15
Rush yds
47
YPC
3.1
Rush TD
1
Targets
2
Rec
1
Rush share
22.7%

Adonai Mitchell

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
15
Rec
9
Rec yds
123
YPR
13.7
Rec TD
0
Target share
25.4%

Garrett Wilson

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
14
Rec
11
Rec yds
136
YPR
12.4
Rec TD
1
Target share
23.7%

Injuries & Availability

Away · New York Jets

Minkah FitzpatrickS

OUT

Groin · Did Not Participate In Practice

Kene NwangwuRB

OUT

Back · Did Not Participate In Practice

Joseph OssaiDL

OUT

Foot · Did Not Participate In Practice

Omar Cooper Jr.WR

OUT

Ankle · Did Not Participate In Practice

Home · Detroit Lions

Christian MahoganyOL

OUT

Hip · Did Not Participate In Practice

Blake MillerOL

OUT

Knee · Did Not Participate In Practice

D.J. ReedCB

QUESTIONABLE

Foot · Limited Participation in Practice

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · New York Jets

Q1
7
Q2
10
Q3
17
Q4
6

Home · Detroit Lions

Q1
7
Q2
10
Q3
21
Q4
17

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · NYJ

passing

New York Jets is at the 19th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · NYJ

efficiency

New York Jets is at the 19th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · DET

passing

Detroit Lions is at the 81th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · DET

efficiency

Detroit Lions is at the 28th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives New York Jets 21% and Detroit Lions 79%.
  • Elo puts New York Jets at 18.4% and the efficiency model at 19.0%.
  • Both components favour Detroit Lions, a 0.6 point difference between them.

What Could Flip It

  • A 0.6 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the New York Jets side.
  • Ratings carry into Week 3 from a two-game sample, so single-game variance still dominates.

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates New York Jets (1-1) at 21% to win at Detroit Lions (1-1). Elo puts New York Jets at 18.4% and the efficiency model at 19.0%; the blend lands at 21%. Both components agree on Detroit Lions.

Forecast

Detroit Lions projected to win, 79% of the time in the model.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.