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Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Monday Night · Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETPHI @ CHI
Philadelphia Eagles

Away

Philadelphia Eagles

2-0

Chicago Bears

Home

Chicago Bears

1-1

Model Win Probability

Philadelphia Eagles · Away

51%

Model
separation2%

Chicago Bears · Home

49%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage · starting-QB status unresolved
Elo component
59% PHI
Efficiency component
37% PHI
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

56
84
Offense
66
69
Passing
59
81
Rushing
66
38
Defense
44
41
Pass Rush
62
60
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

PHIMetricCHI
0.036EPA / Play0.082
41.9%Success Rate45.0%
0.135Dropback EPA0.148
-0.067Rush EPA-0.022
12.3%Explosive Play Rate13.7%
41.9%3rd Down Conversion44.2%
19.7%Red Zone TD Rate16.6%
-0.037Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.026
5.9%Pressure Rate5.9%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
8 days
Home rest
8 days
Site
Chicago Bears home game

Player Impact

Jalen Hurts

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
40/62
Pass yds
467
Pass TD
5
INT
2
Y/A
7.5
Sacks
6

Saquon Barkley

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
19
Rush yds
92
YPC
4.8
Rush TD
0
Targets
4
Rec
2
Rush share
33.3%

Tank Bigsby

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
14
Rush yds
36
YPC
2.6
Rush TD
1
Targets
2
Rec
2
Rush share
24.6%

DeVonta Smith

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
19
Rec
13
Rec yds
170
YPR
13.1
Rec TD
1
Target share
33.9%

Dontayvion Wicks

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
10
Rec
7
Rec yds
147
YPR
21
Rec TD
1
Target share
17.9%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Philadelphia Eagles

Jonathan GreenardLB

OUT

Pectoral · Limited Participation in Practice

Andrew MukubaS

QUESTIONABLE

Knee · Limited Participation in Practice

Home · Chicago Bears

Caleb WilliamsQB

QUESTIONABLE

Hamstring injury; described as week-to-week

Week 3 availability was unresolved at the data cutoff.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · Philadelphia Eagles

Q1
0
Q2
28
Q3
6
Q4
14

Home · Chicago Bears

Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
14
Q4
14

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · PHI

passing

Philadelphia Eagles is at the 66th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · PHI

efficiency

Philadelphia Eagles is at the 66th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · CHI

passing

Chicago Bears is at the 69th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · CHI

efficiency

Chicago Bears is at the 38th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives Philadelphia Eagles 51% and Chicago Bears 49%.
  • Elo puts Philadelphia Eagles at 58.5% and the efficiency model at 36.5%.
  • The two components disagree by 22.0 points, so the blend is less confident.

What Could Flip It

  • Rating and efficiency views point in opposite directions on this game.
  • Chicago's quarterback status is unresolved (Caleb Williams is week-to-week).

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at 51% to win at Chicago Bears (1-1). Elo puts Philadelphia Eagles at 58.5% and the efficiency model at 36.5%; the blend lands at 51%. The components disagree, which pulls the blend toward the middle. Chicago's quarterback status is unresolved (Caleb Williams is week-to-week).

Forecast

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win, 51% of the time in the model.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.