Away
Seattle Seahawks
2-0
Home
Washington Commanders
0-2
Model Win Probability
Seattle Seahawks · Away
68%
separation36%
Washington Commanders · Home
32%
- Elo component
- 76% SEA
- Efficiency component
- 62% SEA
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| SEA | Metric | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| 0.060 | EPA / Play | 0.036 |
| 46.4% | Success Rate | 46.3% |
| 0.228 | Dropback EPA | 0.106 |
| -0.097 | Rush EPA | -0.038 |
| 13.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.0% |
| 41.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 41.5% |
| 16.5% | Red Zone TD Rate | 19.2% |
| -0.145 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.148 |
| 6.4% | Pressure Rate | 6.5% |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Washington Commanders home game
Player Impact
Drew Lock
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 35/48
- Pass yds
- 422
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 8.8
- Sacks
- 2
Emanuel Wilson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 23
- Rush yds
- 95
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 37.1%
Jadarian Price
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 23
- Rush yds
- 104
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 37.1%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 277
- YPR
- 16.3
- Rec TD
- 4
- Target share
- 44%
Rashid Shaheed
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 39
- YPR
- 9.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18%
Away · Seattle Seahawks
Drew Lock
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 35/48
- Pass yds
- 422
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 8.8
- Sacks
- 2
Emanuel Wilson
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 23
- Rush yds
- 95
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 37.1%
Jadarian Price
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 23
- Rush yds
- 104
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 37.1%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 277
- YPR
- 16.3
- Rec TD
- 4
- Target share
- 44%
Rashid Shaheed
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 39
- YPR
- 9.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18%
Home · Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels
QB2026 Weeks 1–2
- CMP/ATT
- 29/51
- Pass yds
- 260
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 5.1
- Sacks
- 1
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 106
- YPC
- 3.8
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 43.8%
Rachaad White
RB2026 Weeks 1–2
- Carries
- 14
- Rush yds
- 65
- YPC
- 4.6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 8
- Rush share
- 21.9%
Stefon Diggs
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 102
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 3
- Target share
- 23.8%
Terry McLaurin
WR2026 Weeks 1–2
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 4
- Rec yds
- 64
- YPR
- 16
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20.6%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Seattle Seahawks
Sam DarnoldQB
OUTGlute · Did Not Participate In Practice
Ty OkadaS
OUTHamstring · Did Not Participate In Practice
Anthony BradfordOL
OUTKnee · Did Not Participate In Practice
Nick EmmanworiS
QUESTIONABLEAnkle · Limited Participation in Practice
Home · Washington Commanders
Jayden DanielsQB
OUTDislocated left elbow; ruled out for Week 3
Marcus Mariota is expected to start.
Frankie LuvuLB
OUTGroin · Did Not Participate In Practice
Chig OkonkwoTE
OUTHamstring · Did Not Participate In Practice
Javon KinlawDL
QUESTIONABLEBack · Limited Participation in Practice
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 2 gamesAway · Seattle Seahawks
Home · Washington Commanders
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Darnold set to return to Seahawks practice Wednesday, Macdonald says
ESPN NFL · just now · SEA
- Commanders still await Daniels timeline, will start Mariota vs. Seahawks
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · SEA / WAS
- NFL power rankings Week 3: Where do Rams slot after trouncing Giants?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · LA / MIA / NYG / SEA
- P.J. Locke has torn plantar fascia
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · DAL / WAS
- Cardinals CB Johnson could be out for the season with neck injury
ESPN NFL · 6h ago · ARI / SEA
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · SEA
passingSeattle Seahawks is at the 88th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · SEA
efficiencySeattle Seahawks is at the 100th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Passing profile · WAS
passingWashington Commanders is at the 62th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.
Defense profile · WAS
efficiencyWashington Commanders is at the 6th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Blended model gives Seattle Seahawks 68% and Washington Commanders 32%.
- Elo puts Seattle Seahawks at 75.8% and the efficiency model at 62.4%.
- Both components favour Seattle Seahawks, a 13.4 point difference between them.
What Could Flip It
- A 13.4 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the Washington Commanders side.
- Washington's starting quarterback situation is unresolved: Jayden Daniels is unavailable and Marcus Mariota is expected to start.
Model Analysis
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Seattle Seahawks (2-0) at 68% to win at Washington Commanders (0-2). Elo puts Seattle Seahawks at 75.8% and the efficiency model at 62.4%; the blend lands at 68%. Both components agree on Seattle Seahawks. Washington's starting quarterback situation is unresolved: Jayden Daniels is unavailable and Marcus Mariota is expected to start.
Forecast
Seattle Seahawks projected to win, 68% of the time in the model.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.